Difference between revisions of "Assignments WS 2020/2021"
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== Spread of 19-COVID == | == Spread of 19-COVID == | ||
| − | '''Author''' : | + | '''Author''' : [[User:Toscool|Toscool]] ([[User talk:Toscool|talk]]) 11:32, 11 December 2020 (CET) |
'''Simulation''' : I will build a dynamic model of an epidemic his the dynamic issues. I will focus on the spread of Covid-19 in a population and Specially I will try to modelize the effect of a lockdown on the number of infections and deaths. | '''Simulation''' : I will build a dynamic model of an epidemic his the dynamic issues. I will focus on the spread of Covid-19 in a population and Specially I will try to modelize the effect of a lockdown on the number of infections and deaths. | ||
Revision as of 12:32, 11 December 2020
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| Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read How to deal with the simulation assignment. |
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Spread of 19-COVID
Author : Toscool (talk) 11:32, 11 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation : I will build a dynamic model of an epidemic his the dynamic issues. I will focus on the spread of Covid-19 in a population and Specially I will try to modelize the effect of a lockdown on the number of infections and deaths. I will start with a susceptible population, with one infected people that infect 10 people with a certain probability. When you are infected you go the doctors and with a certain probability you go in the recovery population or in the hospital. Then you have a percentage of chance to die in this hospital or to recover. The lockdown will triggered when the ratio of people who where to the doctor and total population exceed a certain percentage. We lockdown and by reducing the number of people you infect in the beginning.
Goal of simulation : I aim to model the impact of a lockdown on the spread of COVID on a population. It will also show the difference between countries, for example if we lockdown too late. What will be the impact of these decisions.
Method : I will use VensimPLE for this simulation, as it is a dynamic system, and In my home university I know that we will use VensimPLE for a future course.
