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(Simulace amerického investičního burzovního indexu Standard&Poor 500)
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This simulation should represent flood evacuation for the coast or ashore area and people who lives there. In simulation there will be random area and number of the people generated. The area will have different heights and will be on the coast. People (agents) can move randomly. If the flood will come and the rising water will be flooding the city gradually, the people will be looking for the way leading out of the flood to the nearest hill, or die in the water.
  
== Simulace amerického investičního burzovního indexu Standard&Poor 500 ==
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= Assignment =
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*'''Project Name:''' Flood evacuation
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*'''Author:''' Kristýna Gubišová
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*'''Software used:''' NetLogo
  
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= Object =
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Finding the optimal time and optimal number of people which could stay alive during different sized flood. Rather how many people could be saved when flood wish some height will come. 
  
'''Náplň simulace:'''  
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= Global variables =
Vývoj investičního portfolia amerického burzovního S&P 500 indexu (ročně)
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* '''Number of evacuated people'''
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* '''Size of the flood'''
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* '''Number of hills will be randomly generated'''
  
dle http://www.invescopowershares.com/pdf/P-PBP-PC-1-E.pdf
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= Outcome =
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Simulation should determine the percentage of the heigh above the sea level which could keep the number of people in safety. The main goal is keep the most of the people alive.
  
'''Použitá metoda/Prostředí:'''
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= Comments =
Monte Carlo/Microsoft Excel
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Sounds interesting, but I would need to have elaborated it into a greater detail. E.g. would you simulate a particular area? How should the simulation look like? Please, provide more details and your idea, how do you plan to proceed. I believe this idea is something worth implementation. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] 00:14, 20 December 2014 (CET)
  
'''Popis simulace'''
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more details added xgubk00
  
V simulaci se budu snažit zjistit, zda stojí zato do daného portfolia za daných podmínek investovat, tak abych za x let investování neprodělala. V simulaci je předpokládána počáteční investice – investování určité částky (např. 500 000). Ve výpočtu musí být zohledněny: Průměrný výnos daného indexu S&P 500 – předpokládám v současné době 11,50%, směrodatná odchylka (volatilita) výnosu – 19 % za rok. Investování se předpokládá na určitou dobu, tu si stanovuji na 25 let. Každoročně pak ještě pravidelně vkládám částku např. 50 000. Pro zlepšení statistického výsledku budu výpočet opakovat vícekrát např. 500x.
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All right. I still see two problems. First, how you will represent the elevation of terrain (necessary for simulating the rising water). Second, what will be the scale of the model (and how many agents you will use). It is often a problem that scales of agents and the environment are different (agents are usually much bigger than they should be in comparison to the terrain). Perhaps some sketches could be helpful. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] 22:29, 23 December 2014 (CET)
 
'''Cíl simulace'''
 
Ověření, zda se při současných podmínkách vyplatí do S&P 500 portfolia investovat.
 
  
'''Výstup simulace'''
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Ok, thanks, there would not be any hill, it will be just flat. And on the bank there will be barriers, which could be removed (broken), and if they are, it cause the flood. The water will flood everything equally.
Průměrná konečná hodnota portfolia
 
  
Medián možné konečné hodnoty portfolia
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And for the scale problem, I will use some sketches to preserve the equality between agents and the environment. My plan was to use real data.
  
Pravděpodobnostní odhad končené hodnoty portfolia (percentily)
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I am sorry, but completely flat terrain is a totally artificial construct. As far as I know (and by coincidence I was interested in this matter a couple of years ago), flood protection is mostly about moving everything higher, If the terrain would be flat, the result is pretty simple - you either have flood barriers and then you have no problem or you have no or broken flood barrier and then water is everywhere. Moreover I don't understand where do you get real data for such a situation.
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Please, either elaborate the assigment in detail and avoid unrealistic assumptions or try something different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] 23:05, 26 December 2014 (CET)
  
[95% šance, že se naše portfolio bude pohybovat v částce ....
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corrected --[[User:Xgubk00|Xgubk00]] 21:17, 2 January 2015 (CET)
  
75% šance, že se naše portfolio bude pohybovat v částce ...]
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'''Approved''', late submission -10 points [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] 01:30, 4 January 2015 (CET)
 
 
 
 
 
 
--[[User:Xgubk00|Xgubk00]] 11:05, 6 May 2014 (CEST)
 
Gubišová
 

Latest revision as of 01:45, 4 January 2015

This simulation should represent flood evacuation for the coast or ashore area and people who lives there. In simulation there will be random area and number of the people generated. The area will have different heights and will be on the coast. People (agents) can move randomly. If the flood will come and the rising water will be flooding the city gradually, the people will be looking for the way leading out of the flood to the nearest hill, or die in the water.

Assignment

  • Project Name: Flood evacuation
  • Author: Kristýna Gubišová
  • Software used: NetLogo

Object

Finding the optimal time and optimal number of people which could stay alive during different sized flood. Rather how many people could be saved when flood wish some height will come.

Global variables

  • Number of evacuated people
  • Size of the flood
  • Number of hills will be randomly generated

Outcome

Simulation should determine the percentage of the heigh above the sea level which could keep the number of people in safety. The main goal is keep the most of the people alive.

Comments

Sounds interesting, but I would need to have elaborated it into a greater detail. E.g. would you simulate a particular area? How should the simulation look like? Please, provide more details and your idea, how do you plan to proceed. I believe this idea is something worth implementation. Tomáš 00:14, 20 December 2014 (CET)

more details added xgubk00

All right. I still see two problems. First, how you will represent the elevation of terrain (necessary for simulating the rising water). Second, what will be the scale of the model (and how many agents you will use). It is often a problem that scales of agents and the environment are different (agents are usually much bigger than they should be in comparison to the terrain). Perhaps some sketches could be helpful. Tomáš 22:29, 23 December 2014 (CET)

Ok, thanks, there would not be any hill, it will be just flat. And on the bank there will be barriers, which could be removed (broken), and if they are, it cause the flood. The water will flood everything equally.

And for the scale problem, I will use some sketches to preserve the equality between agents and the environment. My plan was to use real data.

I am sorry, but completely flat terrain is a totally artificial construct. As far as I know (and by coincidence I was interested in this matter a couple of years ago), flood protection is mostly about moving everything higher, If the terrain would be flat, the result is pretty simple - you either have flood barriers and then you have no problem or you have no or broken flood barrier and then water is everywhere. Moreover I don't understand where do you get real data for such a situation. Please, either elaborate the assigment in detail and avoid unrealistic assumptions or try something different. Tomáš 23:05, 26 December 2014 (CET)

corrected --Xgubk00 21:17, 2 January 2015 (CET)

Approved, late submission -10 points Tomáš 01:30, 4 January 2015 (CET)