http://www.simulace.info/api.php?action=feedcontributions&feedformat=atom&user=Aara00 2026-07-27T16:12:40Z User contributions MediaWiki 1.31.1 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12918 2017-01-23T06:45:14Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from Backman R. Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 157 ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. It should be noted that the main source used for this description will be Backman R. Clifford's The World of Medieval Europe.<br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. If one farmer in the village is able to produce a surplus, we might expect this to be caused mainly by common variables such as weather. As a result, we might expect the village to export their surplus, or let some of the farmers take on other occupations, for example in the industrial sector, providing growth to the village [https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239]. This might not directly increase the price of grain, but it might help reduce price of other goods, such as metal, thereby increasing the farmers purchasing power.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer Economy of Medieval Farmer] affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Food_for_family Food for family] affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Crop_yield Crop Yield] Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital. The years from 1050 to 1300 were, according to Backman extraordinarly clement [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As a result agriculture was raised to a level above mere substinence, allowing for technological and societal improvements.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result. As the materials used for homes were quite crude, they might not impose any direct monetary cost, but we will consider the labour put in as an expense [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf].<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. It should also be noted that farmers seldom were able to produce surpluses of note [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. Normally, one-fourth of the harvest was used as seeds. Another one-fourth to two-fourths were paid as rent, and what was left was normally eaten. Economic growth was driven by farmers' ability to produce more than was consumed, which, up to the late middle ages, seldom happened. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. The availability of other resources, such as fresh water or fish, would also help enrich the model. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> # http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 159 - 160, 337<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160, 337<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 333<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160<br /> <br /> =Signature=<br /> [[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 07:45, 23 January 2017 (CET)</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12917 2017-01-23T06:36:05Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from Backman R. Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 157 ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. It should be noted that the main source used for this description will be Backman R. Clifford's The World of Medieval Europe.<br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. If one farmer in the village is able to produce a surplus, we might expect this to be caused mainly by common variables such as weather. As a result, we might expect the village to export their surplus, or let some of the farmers take on other occupations, for example in the industrial sector, providing growth to the village [https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239]. This might not directly increase the price of grain, but it might help reduce price of other goods, such as metal, thereby increasing the farmers purchasing power.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer Economy of Medieval Farmer] affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Food_for_family Food for family] affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Crop_yield Crop Yield] Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital. The years from 1050 to 1300 were, according to Backman extraordinarly clement [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As a result agriculture was raised to a level above mere substinence, allowing for technological and societal improvements.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result. As the materials used for homes were quite crude, they might not impose any direct monetary cost, but we will consider the labour put in as an expense [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf].<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. It should also be noted that farmers seldom were able to produce surpluses of note [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. Normally, one-fourth of the harvest was used as seeds. Another one-fourth to two-fourths were paid as rent, and what was left was normally eaten. Economic growth was driven by farmers' ability to produce more than was consumed, which, up to the late middle ages, seldom happened. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. The availability of other resources, such as fresh water or fish, would also help enrich the model. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> # http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 159 - 160, 337<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160, 337<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 333<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, 164<br /> # Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12916 2017-01-23T06:29:02Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from Backman R. Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 157 ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. It should be noted that the main source used for this description will be Backman R. Clifford's The World of Medieval Europe.<br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. If one farmer in the village is able to produce a surplus, we might expect this to be caused mainly by common variables such as weather. As a result, we might expect the village to export their surplus, or let some of the farmers take on other occupations, for example in the industrial sector, providing growth to the village [https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239]. This might not directly increase the price of grain, but it might help reduce price of other goods, such as metal, thereby increasing the farmers purchasing power.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer Economy of Medieval Farmer] affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Food_for_family Food for family] affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Crop_yield Crop Yield] Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital. The years from 1050 to 1300 were, according to Backman extraordinarly clement [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As a result agriculture was raised to a level above mere substinence, allowing for technological and societal improvements.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result. As the materials used for homes were quite crude, they might not impose any direct monetary cost, but we will consider the labour put in as an expense [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf].<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. It should also be noted that farmers seldom were able to produce surpluses of note [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. Normally, one-fourth of the harvest was used as seeds. Another one-fourth to two-fourths were paid as rent, and what was left was normally eaten. Economic growth was driven by farmers' ability to produce more than was consumed, which, up to the late middle ages, seldom happened. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. The availability of other resources, such as fresh water or fish, would also help enrich the model. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> 1. <br /> 2. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167<br /> 3. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> 4. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> <br /> members of household: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> price of goods: https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239<br /> access to metal: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160, 337<br /> tools: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 159 - 160, 337<br /> tool maintenance: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 333<br /> other maintenance: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> land rent + land rent rate: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, 164<br /> temperate weather: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> ploughing technique + access to oxes: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> feedback loops: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12915 2017-01-23T06:20:18Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from Backman R. Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 157 ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. It should be noted that the main source used for this description will be Backman R. Clifford's The World of Medieval Europe.<br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. If one farmer in the village is able to produce a surplus, we might expect this to be caused mainly by common variables such as weather. As a result, we might expect the village to export their surplus, or let some of the farmers take on other occupations, for example in the industrial sector, providing growth to the village [https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239]. This might not directly increase the price of grain, but it might help reduce price of other goods, such as metal, thereby increasing the farmers purchasing power.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer Economy of Medieval Farmer] affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Food_for_family Food for family] affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Crop_yield Crop Yield] Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital. The years from 1050 to 1300 were, according to Backman extraordinarly clement [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As a result agriculture was raised to a level above mere substinence, allowing for technological and societal improvements.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result. As the materials used for homes were quite crude, they might not impose any direct monetary cost, but we will consider the labour put in as an expense [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf].<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. It should also be noted that farmers seldom were able to produce surpluses of note [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf]. Normally, one-fourth of the harvest was used as seeds. Another one-fourth to two-fourths were paid as rent, and what was left was normally eaten. Economic growth was driven by farmers' ability to produce more than was consumed, which, up to the late middle ages, seldom happened. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. The availability of other resources, such as fresh water or fish, would also help enrich the model. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> 1. <br /> 2. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167<br /> 3. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> 4. Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> <br /> price of goods: https://www.reference.com/business-finance/prices-determined-market-economy-7c77d66a162ba239<br /> tools: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 159 - 160<br /> other maintenance: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 164<br /> land rent + land rent rate: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 158, p. 164<br /> temperate weather: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156<br /> ploughing technique + access to oxes: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 158<br /> feedback loops: Clifford R. Backman: The World of Medieval Europe p. 160</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12914 2017-01-23T05:11:12Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. <br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. Standard economic models how the wealth of a region may inflate domestic prices, and increase the purchasing power against other regions.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer Economy of Medieval Farmer] affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Food_for_family Food for family] affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Crop_yield Crop Yield] Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing (source). They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> 1. <br /> 2. Backman Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12913 2017-01-23T05:08:14Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. <br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. Standard economic models how the wealth of a region may inflate domestic prices, and increase the purchasing power against other regions.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> Economy of Medieval Farmer affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing (source). They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> 1. <br /> 2. Backman Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12912 2017-01-23T05:06:22Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century [http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages/] . During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally [https://cristianizacioneslavos.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/backman-clifford-the-worlds-of-medieval-europe.pdf/]. In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. <br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Price_of_Goods Price of Goods] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Goods_for_sale Goods for sale] affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. Standard economic models how the wealth of a region may inflate domestic prices, and increase the purchasing power against other regions.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Economy_of_Village Economy of Village] affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> Economy of Medieval Farmer affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing (source). They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 1000px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. The model contains few negative feedback loops, but a large amount of positive feedback loops.<br /> <br /> =Future Improvements=<br /> <br /> For the sake of simplicity, the model is far from complete. There are several areas were the model could be improved upon. For example, we might consider a lord who lives an extravagant lifestyle, extorting his subjects for resources. In this case, if the village economy is good, it might not affect the rates for renting land, or even increase them. Furthermore, by introducing a limited supply of land to the model, we would eventually see how rent prices would rise when the economy of the village is booming. This would cause a negative feedback loop, which eventually bust the village and farmer economy. Finally, the effect of war on the economy would be interesting to consider. It might increase the frequency of pillaging, cause conscription of villagers, causing the number of labourers to fall, and finally increase the rates imposed by the lord. All these factors are more closely related to the economy of the village, which is why I kept them out of my submitted model.<br /> <br /> =Citations=<br /> <br /> 1. <br /> 2. Backman Clifford: The World of Medieval Europe p. 156 - 167</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer&diff=12911 2017-01-23T04:39:50Z

<p>Aara00: Created page with &quot; Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in Europea...&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>[[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE ]]<br /> The Medieval period, or Middle Ages, is often defined as the period in European history starting in the 5th century, after the fall of the Roman Empire, and ending during the 14th or 15th century (http://www.dictionary.com/browse/middle-ages ). During this time, the conditions of the rural peasantry changed marginally (s. 156 – 167). In most of Europe it was usual for the farmers to live in serfdom, meaning that most of their actions, directly or indirectly, had to be approved by their lord. For example, serfs were not allowed to leave the lands of their lord unless they had permission or were forced to do so. The wish for control through feudalism combined with the threat of raids from Vikings or Muslims, caused a centralization of rural societies in manors. These manors contained a village, fields for farming, a church, and a varying amount of shops, such as a blacksmith. By submitting to their lord’s legal authority the peasantry were provided protection by their lord and his soldiers. The collectivization that followed from this centralization also provided the peasants with benefits such as shared tools and animals.<br /> <br /> Until the 12th century, as many as 90% of Europe’s population made their living through agricultural means, and the majority did so through farming. The freedom of the serfs varied greatly across Europe, with France being quite restrictive, while the mountain regions of Germany were considered highly autonomous. For this systematic description, we will consider the economy of a medieval farmer. He will have some amount of autonomy. He will pay rent to his lord for the privilege of using the land, but will be able to use the produced goods as he himself pleases. We will also consider him to be part of a community, and he must provide for his family. <br /> <br /> =Variables=<br /> <br /> The layout of the assignment will be so that I will explain a variable, why it is included, and which variables affect said variable, and how and why they affect it.<br /> A systematic description of the economy of a medieval farmer starts with two basic parameters; the revenue of the farmer, and the expenses of the farmer. These are the two cornerstones of any household economy, but there are a large number of factors that affect both these parameters.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of a Medieval Farmer===<br /> The economy of a medieval farmer is in short affected by his revenues and his expenses.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Revenue Revenue] affects the farmer’s economy positively, as this is money coming into the household.<br /> <br /> [http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Economy_of_medieval_farmer/cs&amp;action=submit#Expenses Expenses] affect the farmer’s economy negatively, as this is money going out of the household.<br /> <br /> ===Revenue===<br /> Revenue is affected by two variables: The price of the good the farmer produces, and the quantity of the good he is selling at the market. The revenue is simply the product of the variables. We will assume that the farmer only produces one good, for example grain.<br /> <br /> Price of Goods affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell his goods for more.<br /> <br /> Goods for sale affect revenues positively, as the farmer can sell more goods.<br /> <br /> <br /> ===Price of Goods===<br /> The amount of money the farmer can sell his goods is mainly affected by the Economy of the Village he lives in. Standard economic models how the wealth of a region may inflate domestic prices, and increase the purchasing power against other regions.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Price of Goods positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Village===<br /> Economy of the village the farmer lives in might be the most important factor when considering his own economy. While there are a significant number of factors affecting this variable, we will only consider one as Economy of Medieval Village is an entirely other assignment. When the farmers of the village have a good economy, we might consider that the village has a good economy. Therefore, the Economy of Medieval Farmer is the only variable in our system that affects the economy of the village.<br /> <br /> Economy of Medieval Farmer affects Economy of Village positively.<br /> <br /> ===Goods for sale===<br /> We will consider that the farmer and his family eats some of the goods they produce, and sell everything in abundance. The amount of goods produced is solely affected by the crop yield.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Goods for sale negatively.<br /> Crop Yield affects Goods for sale positively.<br /> <br /> ===Crop Yield===<br /> Crop Yield is probably the single most important factor for the individual farmer. It’s how much the farmer’s crop has yielded of his produced good.<br /> <br /> Land fertility affects Crop Yield positively. The better land the crop is on, the better the yield.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Crop Yield positively. The crop must be worked by the farmer, and the amount of labour put in it will directly influence the yield it provides.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Crop Yield positively. If the farmer wishes to work a large crop, he must rent more land from his lord.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Crop Yield positively. Better tools will allow the farmer to use less time per acre of land.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Crop Yield negatively. If the farm is pillaged by barbarians or parties of war, they might decide to burn or steal the crops. Likewise, the lord of the village might decide to use the scorched earth tactic to starve out enemies.<br /> <br /> ===Land fertility===<br /> Land fertility determines how good the land is.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Land fertility positively. Warm and rainy weather is good for the land. We also include mild winters in this variable.<br /> <br /> Ploughing technique affects Land fertility positively. Ploughing the land in the right way allow it to grow more crops.<br /> <br /> ===Temperate Weather===<br /> Temperate Weather is not affected by any factor within the system, and is therefore an exogenous variable. Even so, its importance is vital.<br /> <br /> ===Ploughing Technique===<br /> In most villages the community would come together for ploughing (source). They would band the village’s resources together and help each other out. Resources used were mainly oxes or horses dragging heavy ploughing tools.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to oxes or horses affects Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> Tools affect Ploughing Technique positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to oxes or horses===<br /> Medieval villages often shared oxes and horses to be used for heavy ploughing. What exactly determines the village’s access to oxes or horses might be a number of factors. For example, geography would be an important factor. For this system we will simply assume that the Economy of the Village is the only relevant factor.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to oxes or horses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tools===<br /> Tools were also often shared by villagers as the access to metal could vary among villages. The village often had a blacksmith who would make tools, and groups of villagers would buy from him. We will assume that the access to metals is the only factor affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Village’s access to metals affects tools positively.<br /> <br /> ===Village’s access to metals===<br /> Whether a village had access to metal could be determined by geography alone. If they were close to a mine, they might have easy access to metals. For simplicity, we will again assume that Economy of the Village is the only variable affecting this variable.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Village’s access to metals positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labour===<br /> The amount of labour might be affected by many factors. For example, the work ethic of the farmer, or illness might be important factors. We will, however, only include the number of workers in the household as a factor. When there are more labourers in the household, the household is able to put more labour into the crops.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Labour positively.<br /> <br /> ===Labourers in Household===<br /> When a child reached a certain age, they would have to carry their weight on a medieval farm. <br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Labourers in Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Members of Household===<br /> The household of a medieval farmer is often quite different than what we might picture us. The number of family members living under the same roof could be huge, and there had to be enough food to go around to feed everyone. Especially small children, not yet able to work, were an expense for the family. Given enough food, however, and with no means for contraception, the household could expand quickly under the right conditions.<br /> <br /> Food for family affects Members of Household positively.<br /> <br /> ===Food for Family===<br /> Every member of the household needs food. Some of the food can be taken from the goods produced, while other food must be bought at the market. The number of household members increases the need for food.<br /> <br /> Members of Household affects Food for family positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land rented===<br /> The amount of land rented from the landowner could heavily influence the crop yield. Without enough labourers to work the land, however, it might instead become a huge expense. The price of renting land also determines how much land the farmer is willing to rent.<br /> <br /> Labourers in Household affects Land rented positively.<br /> <br /> Land rate rent affects Land rented negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Pillaging===<br /> Pillaging might be one of the more unforeseen and devastating variables to affect the medieval farmer. If it should occur, it might destroy all crop yields and cause damage to the household’s house. The lord of the village has pledged to protect the villagers, but might not always be able to do so.<br /> <br /> Lord’s ability to protect affects Pillaging negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Lord’s ability to protect===<br /> Whether the lord is able to protect his manor or manors is dependent on a large number of variables. For example, alliances and politics might be important. For this system we will consider only the Lord’s economy as an important factor, allowing upkeep for his soldiers, or the hire of mercenaries.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Lord’s ability to protect positively.<br /> <br /> ===Economy of Lord===<br /> If the lord’s demesne includes other assets than the system village there might be several factors to determine his wealth. For this system we will only consider the economy of the system village as a vital factor to the lord’s economy. If the village is doing good economically, its peasants will rent land from the lord and provide him with money.<br /> <br /> Economy of Village affects Economy of Lord positively.<br /> <br /> ===Expenses===<br /> Expenses of the medieval farmer is the second major variable in determining his economy. It’s mainly affected by rent that must be paid to the lord, maintenance, and food.<br /> <br /> Land Rent affects Expenses positively.<br /> Food for family affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Tool maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> Other maintenance affects Expenses positively.<br /> <br /> ===Tool maintenance===<br /> We will consider that using tools by the community imposes a fee that must be paid. This pot will be used to fix tools whenever they break. We will assume that the more labour the farmer and his household puts into the crop, the more they must pay for tool maintenance.<br /> <br /> Labour affects Tool maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Other maintenance===<br /> Whenever the households home or other assets break, it must be fixed. We will assume that harsh weather conditions might cause this, or require reinforcements. If the village experiences a raid, it is also rational to assume destruction as a result.<br /> <br /> Temperate Weather affects Other maintenance negatively.<br /> <br /> Pillaging affects Other maintenance positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent===<br /> Land Rent is imposed by the lord for the privilege of using his land. This practice varied across different regions, with some lords instead taking what farmers produced instead, practically making the farmers slaves. In our model the farmer pays a fee, but is willing to use his products as he chooses. Land Rent is the product of the number of acres rented and the rate imposed by the lord.<br /> <br /> Land rented affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> Land Rent Rate affects Land Rent positively.<br /> <br /> ===Land Rent Rate===<br /> The lord has the autonomy to set the land rent rate he himself chooses. As serfs, the farmers are usually not allowed to leave his manor to travel anywhere else, and a low rate is therefore only chosen through the generosity of the lord, or because of its long term benefits. We therefore assume that a financially stable and generous lord might decide on a lower rate for rent. The rate could also be chosen based on the supply and demand of land, but we will try to simplify the model by excluding these variables.<br /> <br /> Generosity of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> Economy of Lord affects Land Rent Rate negatively.<br /> <br /> ===Generosity of Lord===<br /> How generous the lord is, is embedded in his character. We will consider it a totally exogenous and stochastic variable that changes whenever the current lord is succeeded. <br /> <br /> <br /> =Feedback Loops=<br /> <br /> The model creates a huge number of feedback loops. For this reason, we will only look at the loops concerning the main variable of the model; Economy of Medieval Farmer. As the economy of the individual farmer positively affects the economy of the village, it is not surprising that Economy of Village is recurring in all loops concerning the farmer. The economy of the village allows the farmer to use tools, animals, it raises the price of goods, and positively affects the economy of the lord thus providing other benefits such as protection and lowered rent rates. It should be noted that the village’s economy has a much greater effect on the farmer’s economy, than vice versa. Also, even if one farmer’s economy is boosting, it might only have a marginal effect on the economy of the village. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> [[ Image:Medieval Manor.png | thumb | right | 450px | Example of a Medieval Manor from SOURCE ]]<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Economy of Medieval Farmer.png | thumb | center | 450px | Model of Economy of Medieval Farmer ]]</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer1.png&diff=12910 2017-01-23T04:02:32Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Medieval_Manor.png&diff=12909 2017-01-23T03:52:17Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Economy_of_Medieval_Farmer.png&diff=12908 2017-01-23T03:51:36Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Spread_of_Disease&diff=12747 2017-01-17T19:07:50Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>=Introduction=<br /> <br /> This goal of this simulation is to see how diseases spread among populations. It tries to find which factors are the most crucial in creating an epidemic. Under certain conditions a disease has the ability to be devastating to its affected population. For example, the Bubonic Plague is estimated to have killed 30% - 60% of the European population. This model aims to see how such a catastrophe could happen, and whether certain actions can be taken to avoid it.<br /> <br /> =Method=<br /> <br /> ===Software===<br /> <br /> NetLogo 5.3.1 was used for this simulation.<br /> <br /> ===Simulation Details===<br /> <br /> The simulation tries to illustrate how diseases may spread across populations. There is only one turtle in play; humans. The simulation is not based on any specific scientific article, but tries to show which parameters may cause an epidemic. The main measurement of the model is to see how many people are infected by the disease in different cases.<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> <br /> ===People===<br /> <br /> The model contains only one turtle; humans. Humans are divided into two groups, healthy or sick. When a human is sick there is a chance they will infect other humans they come into contact with. After a number of days, the sick person will “die” as they are no longer relevant to the model. Either they have combated the disease and gained immunity, or they have, in fact, died. In default, every human is set to wander randomly.<br /> <br /> ===Contagiousness===<br /> <br /> The chance of contaminating other people depends highly on the type of disease. To accommodate for this, the model has an added slider that affects the chance that a sick person will infect others.<br /> <br /> ===Patient Zero===<br /> <br /> There is also a slider that chooses how many sick turtles the model contains initially. <br /> <br /> ===Number of contagious days===<br /> <br /> Another variable of importance is for how long each person is contagious. This may have significant impact on the result of the model.<br /> <br /> ===Quarantine===<br /> <br /> The model also has a quarantine option. When this is turned on every sick person will move towards the centre, while healthy people will move away from the centre. It is also possible to change how many days it takes for people to move towards the quarantine. This is done to reflect how some diseases do not show symptoms before a certain number of days, but may still be contagious prior to this.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Model 1.png | thumb | left | 450px | Normal setup of the model ]] [[ Image:Quarantine.png | thumb | center | 450px | How the model evolves when quarantine is turned on ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> =Results=<br /> <br /> ===Case 1: High population density, no quarantine===<br /> <br /> In this case there is a high population density (1000 people), there is 100% of infection, there are 50 patient zeros, patients are contagious for 10 days, and there is no quarantine.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case1.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 1 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case we see that 79 % of the population gets infected by the disease.<br /> <br /> ===Case 2: High population density, quarantine===<br /> <br /> This case is the same as the first, with the only difference that there is a quarantine in place. Symptoms are detected immediately after people are infectious, and so they move towards the quarantine zone.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case2.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 2 ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> The effect of the quarantine is significant, and only 24.6 % the population is infected.<br /> <br /> ===Case 3: High population density, quarantine, symptoms show after 5 days===<br /> <br /> This case is similar to the last two, with the exception that patients go to the quarantine zone 5 days after becoming contagious.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case3.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 3 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case the results are devastating, where 98 % of the population is infected. This might seem counterintuitive, but it’s probably caused by the simplicity of the model. The quarantine zone is simply too big, causing very high density of humans away from the quarantine zone. This again accelerates the spread of the disease.<br /> <br /> ===Case 4: Low population density, no quarantine===<br /> <br /> This case is similar to the first one with exception that there are only 100 humans, and there are only 5 patient zeros (5 %). There is 100% of infection, patients are contagious for 10 days, and there is no quarantine.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case4.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 4 ]]<br /> <br /> We see that in this case only 9 % are infected by the disease. <br /> <br /> ===Case 5: Low population density, long contagiousness===<br /> <br /> This case has the same parameters as the previous one with the exception that patiens are contagious for 50 days.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case5.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 5 ]]<br /> <br /> Longer contagiousness causes a higher number of infected, but the increase is not extreme.<br /> <br /> ===Case 6: High population density, long contagiousness===<br /> <br /> This is the same as the previous case, but again with a high population density.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case6.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 6 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case, everyone gets infected by the disease.<br /> <br /> <br /> =Conclusion=<br /> <br /> It is clear from the results that population density is the most important parameter concerning the spread of disease. This coincides with what we know about historical diseases, where they can have a devastating effect on high population density centres, but affects small villages marginally. The number of days that people are contagious has a great effect when population is dense, but is not of great importance when there is a low population. The quarantine also works as a great way to limit the spread of diseases, but proved faulty in the model when symptoms did not show immediately. There are countless other cases that could be examined, but the effect of factors such as infection chance and the number of initial patients is quite easy to predict. <br /> <br /> =Future improvements for the model=<br /> <br /> The model is quite simple, with humans wandering randomly about. A huge improvement for the model would be to make it so that people had homes and would go to work until symptoms showed. Additionally, in its current form, the model’s quarantine feature makes it so that people gather in huge crowds even though they aren’t sick, making the disease spread like wildfire when symptoms don’t show early.<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> [[File:SpreadofDisease.nlogo]]</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Spread_of_Disease&diff=12745 2017-01-17T19:03:58Z

<p>Aara00: Created page with &quot;=Spread of Disease= ==Introduction== This goal of this simulation is to see how diseases spread among populations. It tries to find which factors are the most crucial in cre...&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>=Spread of Disease=<br /> <br /> ==Introduction==<br /> <br /> This goal of this simulation is to see how diseases spread among populations. It tries to find which factors are the most crucial in creating an epidemic. Under certain conditions a disease has the ability to be devastating to its affected population. For example, the Bubonic Plague is estimated to have killed 30% - 60% of the European population. This model aims to see how such a catastrophe could happen, and whether certain actions can be taken to avoid it.<br /> <br /> ==Method==<br /> <br /> ===Software===<br /> <br /> NetLogo 5.3.1 was used for this simulation.<br /> <br /> ===Simulation Details===<br /> <br /> The simulation tries to illustrate how diseases may spread across populations. There is only one turtle in play; humans. The simulation is not based on any specific scientific article, but tries to show which parameters may cause an epidemic. The main measurement of the model is to see how many people are infected by the disease in different cases.<br /> <br /> ==Model==<br /> <br /> ===People===<br /> <br /> The model contains only one turtle; humans. Humans are divided into two groups, healthy or sick. When a human is sick there is a chance they will infect other humans they come into contact with. After a number of days, the sick person will “die” as they are no longer relevant to the model. Either they have combated the disease and gained immunity, or they have, in fact, died. In default, every human is set to wander randomly.<br /> <br /> ===Contagiousness===<br /> <br /> The chance of contaminating other people depends highly on the type of disease. To accommodate for this, the model has an added slider that affects the chance that a sick person will infect others.<br /> <br /> ===Patient Zero===<br /> <br /> There is also a slider that chooses how many sick turtles the model contains initially. <br /> <br /> ===Number of contagious days===<br /> <br /> Another variable of importance is for how long each person is contagious. This may have significant impact on the result of the model.<br /> <br /> ===Quarantine===<br /> <br /> The model also has a quarantine option. When this is turned on every sick person will move towards the centre, while healthy people will move away from the centre. It is also possible to change how many days it takes for people to move towards the quarantine. This is done to reflect how some diseases do not show symptoms before a certain number of days, but may still be contagious prior to this.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Model 1.png | thumb | left | 450px | Normal setup of the model ]] [[ Image:Quarantine.png | thumb | center | 450px | How the model evolves when quarantine is turned on ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ==Results==<br /> <br /> ===Case 1: High population density, no quarantine===<br /> <br /> In this case there is a high population density (1000 people), there is 100% of infection, there are 50 patient zeros, patients are contagious for 10 days, and there is no quarantine.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case1.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 1 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case we see that 79 % of the population gets infected by the disease.<br /> <br /> ===Case 2: High population density, quarantine===<br /> <br /> This case is the same as the first, with the only difference that there is a quarantine in place. Symptoms are detected immediately after people are infectious, and so they move towards the quarantine zone.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case2.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 2 ]]<br /> <br /> <br /> The effect of the quarantine is significant, and only 24.6 % the population is infected.<br /> <br /> ===Case 3: High population density, quarantine, symptoms show after 5 days===<br /> <br /> This case is similar to the last two, with the exception that patients go to the quarantine zone 5 days after becoming contagious.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case3.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 3 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case the results are devastating, where 98 % of the population is infected. This might seem counterintuitive, but it’s probably caused by the simplicity of the model. The quarantine zone is simply too big, causing very high density of humans away from the quarantine zone. This again accelerates the spread of the disease.<br /> <br /> ===Case 4: Low population density, no quarantine===<br /> <br /> This case is similar to the first one with exception that there are only 100 humans, and there are only 5 patient zeros (5 %). There is 100% of infection, patients are contagious for 10 days, and there is no quarantine.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case4.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 4 ]]<br /> <br /> We see that in this case only 9 % are infected by the disease. <br /> <br /> ===Case 5: Low population density, long contagiousness===<br /> <br /> This case has the same parameters as the previous one with the exception that patiens are contagious for 50 days.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case5.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 5 ]]<br /> <br /> Longer contagiousness causes a higher number of infected, but the increase is not extreme.<br /> <br /> ===Case 6: High population density, long contagiousness===<br /> <br /> This is the same as the previous case, but again with a high population density.<br /> <br /> [[ Image:Case6.png | thumb | center | 450px | Case 6 ]]<br /> <br /> In this case, everyone gets infected by the disease.<br /> <br /> <br /> ==Conclusion==<br /> <br /> It is clear from the results that population density is the most important parameter concerning the spread of disease. This coincides with what we know about historical diseases, where they can have a devastating effect on high population density centres, but affects small villages marginally. The number of days that people are contagious has a great effect when population is dense, but is not of great importance when there is a low population. The quarantine also works as a great way to limit the spread of diseases, but proved faulty in the model when symptoms did not show immediately. There are countless other cases that could be examined, but the effect of factors such as infection chance and the number of initial patients is quite easy to predict. <br /> <br /> ==Future improvements for the model==<br /> <br /> The model is quite simple, with humans wandering randomly about. A huge improvement for the model would be to make it so that people had homes and would go to work until symptoms showed. Additionally, in its current form, the model’s quarantine feature makes it so that people gather in huge crowds even though they aren’t sick, making the disease spread like wildfire when symptoms don’t show early.<br /> <br /> ==Code==<br /> [[File:SpreadofDisease.nlogo]]</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:SpreadofDisease.nlogo&diff=12740 2017-01-17T18:51:11Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Case6.png&diff=12738 2017-01-17T18:42:37Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Case4.png&diff=12736 2017-01-17T18:41:39Z

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Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=WS_2016/2017&diff=12702 2017-01-17T18:15:00Z

<p>Aara00: /* Simulations */</p> <hr /> <div>Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].<br /> <br /> <br /> ==Simulations==<br /> <br /> --[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:29, 15 January 2017 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova [[Optimal schedule of Moscow metro]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators &amp; Prey]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Robert|Robert B.]] ([[User talk:Robert|talk]]) 09:42, 16 January 2017 (CET) [[Simulation of spreading of sexually transmitted infections]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Hanka|xnaph00]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 13:42, 16 January 2017 (CET) [[The strength of tsunami]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:xzemj34|xzemj34]] ([[User talk:xzemj34|talk]]) 17:05, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Bank branch checkout optimalization]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 18:27, 17 January 2017 (CET)[[D1 Highway Traffic simulation]]<br /> <br /> --[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 19:14, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Spread of Disease]]</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Assignments_WS_2016/2017&diff=12538 2017-01-06T04:56:47Z

<p>Aara00: /* Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) */</p> <hr /> <div>{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use &lt;nowiki&gt;~~~~&lt;/nowiki&gt; (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | type = content<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> == Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==<br /> <br /> The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.<br /> Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.<br /> <br /> The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?<br /> <br /> Method: Monte carlo Simulation;<br /> Program: Excel<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's). <br /> <br /> I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==<br /> <br /> Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).<br /> <br /> - Each team can have 1 – 10 players<br /> <br /> - Each team begins opposite of each other<br /> <br /> - Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)<br /> <br /> - One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)<br /> <br /> - When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy<br /> <br /> - If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased<br /> <br /> - When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)<br /> <br /> <br /> First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.<br /> <br /> --[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> --- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Software Developers (xvatj00) ==<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.<br /> Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.<br /> Method: Simprocess<br /> <br /> === Goal of the Simulation ===<br /> The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.<br /> <br /> Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a &quot;soft&quot; process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a &quot;soft&quot; field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and &quot;hard&quot; part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Good evening, what about I simulated the process as a whole, without dividing the employees, taking into account average times for each part of the development, chances of delays and their scenarios, etc. Then I could find how many orders I would be able to process at maximum with the current number of employees, and how costly one order is on average? I will try to think of another simulation as well, would it maybe be possible to get some tips for the topic? [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 22:07, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> ::: Please, try something else asap. Software development is really very hard to manage this way. Projects are very different even if they could seem relatively predictable (like e.g. a development of various plugins). I am afraid you would have a weak fit with reality. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:30, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==<br /> <br /> This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.<br /> In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:<br /> <br /> 1) applying medium-sized police force<br /> <br /> 2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force<br /> <br /> 3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time<br /> <br /> <br /> The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.<br /> <br /> The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime. <br /> Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime: <br /> <br /> 1)the level of the city (user controls)<br /> <br /> 2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)<br /> <br /> <br /> '''The goal of this simulation is:<br /> '''<br /> <br /> - to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.<br /> <br /> - to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.<br /> <br /> - to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.<br /> <br /> '''Method - NetLogo<br /> <br /> Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova<br /> <br /> : You strive to work with very &quot;soft&quot; characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> === Optimal schedule of Moscow metro (NEW ASSIGNMENT) ===<br /> <br /> The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.<br /> <br /> Key parametrs:<br /> <br /> - periodicity of people travalling by metro<br /> <br /> - delay time of each train<br /> <br /> - number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)<br /> <br /> - capacity of train<br /> <br /> The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.<br /> <br /> Method: NetLogo<br /> <br /> [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 18:43, 18 December 2016 (CET) xushk00, Kateryna Ushanova<br /> <br /> : '''Approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:31, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==<br /> <br /> NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.<br /> <br /> Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.<br /> <br /> -adjustable poison release<br /> <br /> Goal:<br /> Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.<br /> <br /> [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> --Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==<br /> <br /> Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from. <br /> <br /> Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).<br /> <br /> --[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> : This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==<br /> <br /> My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo. <br /> The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.<br /> These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.<br /> <br /> The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the &quot;economical state exactly&quot; and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters? <br /> System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant. <br /> The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.<br /> The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.<br /> I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Would it be ok, if I tried doing this simulation based on macroeconomic textbook from VSE and If I find out that it is too complicated I will do some other simulation? I am already thinking about trafic simulation in netlogo with simple trafic network and agents using A* algorithm to find way around some accidents and trafic closures. [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 20:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> The rules are in this case strict (and there is not enough time for this &quot;what if approach&quot; anyway). So you have to choose the simulation topic now.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 08:31, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> And the trafic simulation would be okay? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 11:01, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> Should I create new simulation assignment here? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 11:44, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> ::Yes, you have to create new topic here which will contain all the required information. [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 14:36, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==<br /> <br /> I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries. <br /> The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.<br /> In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.<br /> <br /> I should also be able to relate this to game theory.<br /> <br /> [[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> <br /> '''New project: The spread of a zombie virus'''<br /> <br /> After trying to figure out how to do the project on corporate tax rate for a while, I decided to go with a new topic. The simulation will be done in NetLogo and look at how a zombie virus spreads among the population. The goal of the simulation is to see what parameters minimizes humanity's survival. There will be a patient zero who has a x% chance to infect someone. As soon as someone is infected they will also turn into zombies. I also want to try to implement scarcity of resources for survivors, probably through patches, and if possible to the same for the zombies in that they die if they don't infect someone within a time limit. Using real data will be really hard, but there is a newly published study on this from the University of Leicester, so I will try to use this as best I can.<br /> <br /> Sorry for not coming back to this before today, christmas has been very hectic. I hope you'll be kind, though!<br /> <br /> --[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 05:45, 6 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==<br /> Software: Simproces<br /> <br /> Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.<br /> Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the &quot;call-out infosystem&quot;.<br /> This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).<br /> Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.<br /> <br /> Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.<br /> <br /> : Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==<br /> <br /> A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the &quot;Stará budova&quot; at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the &quot;VŠE Maps&quot; project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.<br /> <br /> The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go. <br /> I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck. <br /> <br /> [[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==<br /> <br /> Software: Vensim<br /> <br /> Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.<br /> <br /> Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.<br /> <br /> Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).<br /> <br /> [[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==<br /> <br /> NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.<br /> The model town is Rio de Janiero.<br /> Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland. <br /> Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic. <br /> Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.<br /> Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.<br /> The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.<br /> The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.<br /> --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.<br /> --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Ok, how it will actually look like? How you will deal with spatial characteristics? Perhaps a small sketch would help. The idea is really appealing, I just want to be sure that you have an exact idea, how you want to sort it out as it could be a potential headache. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:34, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I see it in way of the forest burning rate according to its density. Somewhere I saw this an example. I would build on similar logic, may not take into account the population but only the buildings and water. Would that work? --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 19:27, 27 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Ok, I didn't want you to make it simpler, I just wanted to understand how you will solve it. Anyway, '''approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 21:46, 4 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==<br /> <br /> There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.<br /> <br /> ''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''<br /> <br /> '''Depression spreading on social media'''<br /> There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p&gt;50% man is &quot;optimist&quot;, if p&lt;50% man is &quot;pessimist&quot;). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad. <br /> ''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo&lt; because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++<br /> ''<br /> : The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> :: '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:35, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==<br /> Environment: NetLogo<br /> <br /> Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables. <br /> As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.<br /> <br /> Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.<br /> <br /> : Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: I am sorry, but in such a case, we cannot do it. You will have to come to a conclusion. The task is not about the simulation. Simulation is just an instrument leading to a report. If you cannot &quot;promise anything realistic&quot;, we have no chance how to evaluate whether your conclusions make sense or not. You can come with virtually anything and there will be no way how to verify it. In science, it is called &quot;falsifiability&quot;. I am afraid that your suggestion is not falsifiable, hence it cannot be accepted. Please, try to either reformulate it somehow, narrow the problem down, or simply find something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:41, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> === Efficiency of robotic vacuums at home (NEW ASSIGNMENT) ===<br /> <br /> The simulation will show in NetLogo how a robotic vacuum cleans a dusty environment and its efficiency.<br /> <br /> - The vacuum has a random algorithm of cleaning<br /> <br /> - The amount of dustiness will increase in time - option to set how often<br /> <br /> - Vacuum's parameter is power (how powerful it is in cleaning the dust) - option to set own values<br /> <br /> The goal is to find out how long it takes to clean the whole room if possible with different values of vacuum's power and dustiness<br /> <br /> : I am afraid, it could be quite arbitrary as the amount of dust and the power of the vacuum cleaner is not known. I would suggest a little bit different. There are various models of vacuum cleaners on the market. The simpler ones use just a random moves. The more advanced ones use some more complex algorithms. Find a documentation, what algorithms of cleaning are used, simulate them and compare the efficiency of such &quot;intelligent&quot; robots with those random ones. If you agree then '''approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 21:45, 4 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Traffic simulation(Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==<br /> Software: NetLogo<br /> <br /> The enviroment would be graph with variable amount of nodes(cities). Agents would simulate traffic in this enviroment. Turtles would travers the graph from their set home node to their target node and back. They would find their way by using A* algorithm. Every edge would have set distance and max speed.<br /> <br /> Simulation would create road closures. Agents would try to avoid these closures and traffic jams based on their set variables (looking for shortest or fastest way). Simulation is going to show weak points of this traffic system during traffic problems.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:40, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Good, traffic simulations are among the most popular and quite useful for ABM, however, in your case, it looks like a bit general. You should either reformulate it in order to solve a particular traffic problem (like e.g. the influence of &quot;no passing rule&quot; on traffic density or something like that), or, perhaps easier, simulate precisely a particular spot (like e.g. a particular junction, a particular tunnel, etc.). [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:46, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> So if I pick for example first 30 kilometers of D1 and simulate the exits and neighbouring nodes(cities). The simulation would show effects of accidents and road restrictions on D1 on the close cities. Would that be okay? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 14:17, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : '''Approved'''. Don't forget to obtain real data. Fortunately, it should be easy for this particular example.</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Assignments_WS_2016/2017&diff=12537 2017-01-06T04:45:37Z

<p>Aara00: /* Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) */</p> <hr /> <div>{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use &lt;nowiki&gt;~~~~&lt;/nowiki&gt; (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | type = content<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> == Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==<br /> <br /> The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.<br /> Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.<br /> <br /> The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?<br /> <br /> Method: Monte carlo Simulation;<br /> Program: Excel<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's). <br /> <br /> I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==<br /> <br /> Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).<br /> <br /> - Each team can have 1 – 10 players<br /> <br /> - Each team begins opposite of each other<br /> <br /> - Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)<br /> <br /> - One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)<br /> <br /> - When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy<br /> <br /> - If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased<br /> <br /> - When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)<br /> <br /> <br /> First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.<br /> <br /> --[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> --- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Software Developers (xvatj00) ==<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.<br /> Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.<br /> Method: Simprocess<br /> <br /> === Goal of the Simulation ===<br /> The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.<br /> <br /> Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a &quot;soft&quot; process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a &quot;soft&quot; field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and &quot;hard&quot; part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Good evening, what about I simulated the process as a whole, without dividing the employees, taking into account average times for each part of the development, chances of delays and their scenarios, etc. Then I could find how many orders I would be able to process at maximum with the current number of employees, and how costly one order is on average? I will try to think of another simulation as well, would it maybe be possible to get some tips for the topic? [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 22:07, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> ::: Please, try something else asap. Software development is really very hard to manage this way. Projects are very different even if they could seem relatively predictable (like e.g. a development of various plugins). I am afraid you would have a weak fit with reality. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:30, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==<br /> <br /> This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.<br /> In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:<br /> <br /> 1) applying medium-sized police force<br /> <br /> 2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force<br /> <br /> 3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time<br /> <br /> <br /> The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.<br /> <br /> The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime. <br /> Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime: <br /> <br /> 1)the level of the city (user controls)<br /> <br /> 2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)<br /> <br /> <br /> '''The goal of this simulation is:<br /> '''<br /> <br /> - to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.<br /> <br /> - to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.<br /> <br /> - to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.<br /> <br /> '''Method - NetLogo<br /> <br /> Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova<br /> <br /> : You strive to work with very &quot;soft&quot; characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> === Optimal schedule of Moscow metro (NEW ASSIGNMENT) ===<br /> <br /> The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.<br /> <br /> Key parametrs:<br /> <br /> - periodicity of people travalling by metro<br /> <br /> - delay time of each train<br /> <br /> - number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)<br /> <br /> - capacity of train<br /> <br /> The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.<br /> <br /> Method: NetLogo<br /> <br /> [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 18:43, 18 December 2016 (CET) xushk00, Kateryna Ushanova<br /> <br /> : '''Approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:31, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==<br /> <br /> NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.<br /> <br /> Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.<br /> <br /> -adjustable poison release<br /> <br /> Goal:<br /> Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.<br /> <br /> [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> --Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==<br /> <br /> Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from. <br /> <br /> Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).<br /> <br /> --[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> : This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==<br /> <br /> My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo. <br /> The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.<br /> These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.<br /> <br /> The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the &quot;economical state exactly&quot; and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters? <br /> System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant. <br /> The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.<br /> The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.<br /> I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Would it be ok, if I tried doing this simulation based on macroeconomic textbook from VSE and If I find out that it is too complicated I will do some other simulation? I am already thinking about trafic simulation in netlogo with simple trafic network and agents using A* algorithm to find way around some accidents and trafic closures. [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 20:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> The rules are in this case strict (and there is not enough time for this &quot;what if approach&quot; anyway). So you have to choose the simulation topic now.<br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 08:31, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> And the trafic simulation would be okay? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 11:01, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> Should I create new simulation assignment here? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 11:44, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> ::Yes, you have to create new topic here which will contain all the required information. [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 14:36, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==<br /> <br /> I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries. <br /> The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.<br /> In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.<br /> <br /> I should also be able to relate this to game theory.<br /> <br /> [[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> <br /> '''New project: The spread of a zombie virus'''<br /> <br /> After trying to figure out how to do the project on corporate tax rate for a while, I decided to go with a new topic. The simulation will be done in NetLogo and look at how a zombie virus spreads among the population. The goal of the simulation is to see what parameters minimizes humanity's survival. There will be a patient zero who has a x% chance to infect someone. As soon as someone is infected they will also turn into zombies.<br /> <br /> Sorry for not coming back to this before today, christmas has been very hectic. I hope you'll be kind, though!<br /> <br /> --[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 05:45, 6 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==<br /> Software: Simproces<br /> <br /> Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.<br /> Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the &quot;call-out infosystem&quot;.<br /> This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).<br /> Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.<br /> <br /> Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.<br /> <br /> : Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==<br /> <br /> A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the &quot;Stará budova&quot; at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the &quot;VŠE Maps&quot; project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.<br /> <br /> The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go. <br /> I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck. <br /> <br /> [[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==<br /> <br /> Software: Vensim<br /> <br /> Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.<br /> <br /> Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.<br /> <br /> Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).<br /> <br /> [[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==<br /> <br /> NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.<br /> The model town is Rio de Janiero.<br /> Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland. <br /> Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic. <br /> Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.<br /> Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.<br /> The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.<br /> The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.<br /> --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.<br /> --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Ok, how it will actually look like? How you will deal with spatial characteristics? Perhaps a small sketch would help. The idea is really appealing, I just want to be sure that you have an exact idea, how you want to sort it out as it could be a potential headache. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:34, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I see it in way of the forest burning rate according to its density. Somewhere I saw this an example. I would build on similar logic, may not take into account the population but only the buildings and water. Would that work? --[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 19:27, 27 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: Ok, I didn't want you to make it simpler, I just wanted to understand how you will solve it. Anyway, '''approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 21:46, 4 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==<br /> <br /> There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.<br /> <br /> ''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''<br /> <br /> '''Depression spreading on social media'''<br /> There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p&gt;50% man is &quot;optimist&quot;, if p&lt;50% man is &quot;pessimist&quot;). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad. <br /> ''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo&lt; because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++<br /> ''<br /> : The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> :: '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:35, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==<br /> Environment: NetLogo<br /> <br /> Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables. <br /> As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.<br /> <br /> Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.<br /> <br /> : Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> :: I am sorry, but in such a case, we cannot do it. You will have to come to a conclusion. The task is not about the simulation. Simulation is just an instrument leading to a report. If you cannot &quot;promise anything realistic&quot;, we have no chance how to evaluate whether your conclusions make sense or not. You can come with virtually anything and there will be no way how to verify it. In science, it is called &quot;falsifiability&quot;. I am afraid that your suggestion is not falsifiable, hence it cannot be accepted. Please, try to either reformulate it somehow, narrow the problem down, or simply find something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:41, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> === Efficiency of robotic vacuums at home (NEW ASSIGNMENT) ===<br /> <br /> The simulation will show in NetLogo how a robotic vacuum cleans a dusty environment and its efficiency.<br /> <br /> - The vacuum has a random algorithm of cleaning<br /> <br /> - The amount of dustiness will increase in time - option to set how often<br /> <br /> - Vacuum's parameter is power (how powerful it is in cleaning the dust) - option to set own values<br /> <br /> The goal is to find out how long it takes to clean the whole room if possible with different values of vacuum's power and dustiness<br /> <br /> : I am afraid, it could be quite arbitrary as the amount of dust and the power of the vacuum cleaner is not known. I would suggest a little bit different. There are various models of vacuum cleaners on the market. The simpler ones use just a random moves. The more advanced ones use some more complex algorithms. Find a documentation, what algorithms of cleaning are used, simulate them and compare the efficiency of such &quot;intelligent&quot; robots with those random ones. If you agree then '''approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 21:45, 4 January 2017 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Traffic simulation(Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==<br /> Software: NetLogo<br /> <br /> The enviroment would be graph with variable amount of nodes(cities). Agents would simulate traffic in this enviroment. Turtles would travers the graph from their set home node to their target node and back. They would find their way by using A* algorithm. Every edge would have set distance and max speed.<br /> <br /> Simulation would create road closures. Agents would try to avoid these closures and traffic jams based on their set variables (looking for shortest or fastest way). Simulation is going to show weak points of this traffic system during traffic problems.<br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:40, 19 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : Good, traffic simulations are among the most popular and quite useful for ABM, however, in your case, it looks like a bit general. You should either reformulate it in order to solve a particular traffic problem (like e.g. the influence of &quot;no passing rule&quot; on traffic density or something like that), or, perhaps easier, simulate precisely a particular spot (like e.g. a particular junction, a particular tunnel, etc.). [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 00:46, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> So if I pick for example first 30 kilometers of D1 and simulate the exits and neighbouring nodes(cities). The simulation would show effects of accidents and road restrictions on D1 on the close cities. Would that be okay? [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 14:17, 22 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> : '''Approved'''. Don't forget to obtain real data. Fortunately, it should be easy for this particular example.</div>

Aara00 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Assignments_WS_2016/2017&diff=12436 2016-12-16T12:28:57Z

<p>Aara00: </p> <hr /> <div>{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use &lt;nowiki&gt;~~~~&lt;/nowiki&gt; (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> {{Ambox<br /> | type = content<br /> | text = &lt;div&gt;<br /> In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> }}<br /> <br /> == Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==<br /> <br /> The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.<br /> Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.<br /> <br /> The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?<br /> <br /> Method: Monte carlo Simulation;<br /> Program: Excel<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's). <br /> <br /> I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.<br /> <br /> [[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.<br /> <br /> [[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==<br /> <br /> Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).<br /> <br /> - Each team can have 1 – 10 players<br /> <br /> - Each team begins opposite of each other<br /> <br /> - Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)<br /> <br /> - One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)<br /> <br /> - When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy<br /> <br /> - If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased<br /> <br /> - When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)<br /> <br /> <br /> First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.<br /> <br /> --[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> --- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Software Developers (xvatj00) ==<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.<br /> Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.<br /> Method: Simprocess<br /> <br /> === Goal of the Simulation ===<br /> The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.<br /> <br /> Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a &quot;soft&quot; process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==<br /> <br /> This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.<br /> In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:<br /> <br /> 1) applying medium-sized police force<br /> <br /> 2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force<br /> <br /> 3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time<br /> <br /> <br /> The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.<br /> <br /> The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime. <br /> Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime: <br /> <br /> 1)the level of the city (user controls)<br /> <br /> 2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)<br /> <br /> <br /> '''The goal of this simulation is:<br /> '''<br /> <br /> - to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.<br /> <br /> - to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.<br /> <br /> - to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.<br /> <br /> '''Method - NetLogo<br /> <br /> Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova<br /> <br /> == (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==<br /> <br /> NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.<br /> <br /> Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.<br /> <br /> -adjustable poison release<br /> <br /> Goal:<br /> Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.<br /> <br /> [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> - Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==<br /> <br /> Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from. <br /> <br /> Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).<br /> <br /> --[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> : This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''accepted''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==<br /> <br /> My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo. <br /> The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.<br /> These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.<br /> <br /> The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.<br /> <br /> [[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)<br /> <br /> == Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==<br /> <br /> I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries. <br /> The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.<br /> In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.<br /> <br /> I should also be able to relate this to game theory.<br /> <br /> [[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)</div>

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