http://www.simulace.info/api.php?action=feedcontributions&feedformat=atom&user=Qnesa01 2026-07-27T16:30:38Z User contributions MediaWiki 1.31.1 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Argentinska_sim.nlogo&diff=17535 2019-02-03T19:21:57Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17534 2019-02-03T19:21:28Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> ==Agents==<br /> ===Cars===<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ===Lights ===<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> ==Simulation==<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [[File:Argentinska_sim.nlogo]]</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17533 2019-02-03T19:20:55Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> ==Agents==<br /> ===Cars===<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ===Lights ===<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> ==Simulation==<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [[File:Argentinska_sim.jpg]]</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17532 2019-02-03T19:20:24Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> ==Agents==<br /> ===Cars===<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ===Lights ===<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> ==Simulation==<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [[File:Example.jpg]]</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:WoM.jpg&diff=17268 2019-01-23T12:14:31Z

<p>Qnesa01: Qnesa01 uploaded a new version of File:WoM.jpg</p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Fishing.jpg&diff=17267 2019-01-23T12:11:36Z

<p>Qnesa01: Qnesa01 uploaded a new version of File:Fishing.jpg</p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Fire.jpg&diff=17266 2019-01-23T12:06:53Z

<p>Qnesa01: Qnesa01 uploaded a new version of File:Fire.jpg</p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Balanc.jpg&diff=17265 2019-01-23T12:01:54Z

<p>Qnesa01: Qnesa01 uploaded a new version of File:Balanc.jpg</p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=WS_2018/2019&diff=17264 2019-01-23T11:59:47Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>Semestral papers from winter term 2018/2019. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2018/2019|assignment approved]]<br /> <br /> ==Simulations==<br /> <br /> --[[User:xvegm00|xvegm00]] [[User:Xvegm00|Xvegm00]] ([[User talk:Xvegm00|talk]]) 22:13, 8 January 2019 (CET) [[Simulation of semi-intelligent algae]]<br /> <br /> -- Jan Doležálek [[User:Dolj04|Dolj04]] ([[User talk:Dolj04|talk]]) 16:50, 18 January 2019 (CET) [[Optimal size of HDD for virtual Digitization server]]<br /> <br /> -- Jiří Korčák [[User:Xkorj58|Xkorj58]] ([[User talk:Xkorj58|talk]]) 11:09, 19 January 2019 (CET) [[Vacuum cleaner]]<br /> <br /> -- Jan Mandík [[User:Manj01|Manj01]] ([[User talk:Manj01|talk]]) 14:46, 19 January 2019 (CET) [[Ticket Solving Process at a Small IT dev Company]] <br /> <br /> -- [[User:Martin svejda|Martin svejda]] ([[User talk:Martin svejda|talk]]) 18:43, 19 January 2019 (CET) [[evacuation from burning building]]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Xlazl00|Xlazl00]] ([[User talk:Xlazl00|talk]]) 12:11, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[Medieval Battle Simulation]]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Qnesa01|Qnesa01]] ([User talk:Qnesa01|talk]]) 16:19, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[Argentinska Intersection]]<br /> <br /> -- Jan Pippal (xpipj04) [[User:Janpippal|Janpippal]] 16:41, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[You are what you eat]]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Kadj02|Kadj02]] ([[User talk:Kadj02|talk]]) 23:19, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[Slime mold]]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Xkaij00|Xkaij00]] ([[User talk:Xkaij00|talk]]) 01:38, 21 January 2019 (CET) [[Simulation of north korea migration]]<br /> <br /> ==Papers==<br /> -- [[User:Martin svejda|Martin svejda]] ([[User talk:Martin svejda|talk]]) 20:43, 12 January 2019 (CET) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_flow_diagram Complete redo of DFD wikipedia]~<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Xvegm00|Xvegm00]] ([[User talk:Xvegm00|talk]]) 10:44, 17 January 2019 (CET) [[http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Multi-agent_systems Multi-agent systems]]<br /> <br /> -- Jan Pippal (xpipj04) [[User:Janpippal|Janpippal]] 4:48, 20 January 2019 (CET) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft:MMABP MMABP in English]<br /> <br /> -- [[User:Qnesa01|Qnesa01]] ([User talk:Qnesa01|talk]]) 17:19, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[Limits to Growth_ver2]] <br /> <br /> -- Tomáš Smysl (xsmyt00) [[User:Xsmyt00|Xsmyt00]] ([[User talk:Xsmyt00|talk]]) 22:36, 20 January 2019 (CET) [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ArchiMate ArchiMate wiki]] Note: I had some issues with the Wikipedia image upload - they did not approve my images. So the visual part of the Paper is missing examples of models that would ilustrate the text, which is quite unfortunate considering the topic is a visual modeling tool. I hope it can be solved later on. I even redrew some of the models so there would not be an issue with rights.<br /> <br /> -- Jan Doležálek [[User:Dolj04|Dolj04]] ([[User talk:Dolj04|talk]]) 11:09, 21 January 2019 (CET) [[http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Variance_reduction Variance reduction]]<br /> <br /> -- Jan Mandík [[User:Manj01|Manj01]] ([[User talk:Manj01|talk]]) 21:52, 21 January 2019 (CET) [[Vickrey%27s_auction]]</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17263 2019-01-23T11:58:23Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> [[File:Reinforc.jpg|thumb|centre|Reinforcing loop ]] <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.<br /> [[File:Balanc.jpg|thumb|centre|Balancing loop ]] <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> [[File:Apple.jpg|thumb|centre|Exponential Business Growth: A Smartphone Case Study [4] ]] <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> 3. Oil based economy<br /> [[File:Oil.jpg|thumb|centre| Countries with oil-based economy]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0<br /> # Jenny Zhou &quot;Exponential Business Growth: A Smartphone Case Study&quot; https://systemsandus.com/2014/07/18/exponential-business-growth-a-smartphone-case-study/</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Reinforc.jpg&diff=17262 2019-01-23T11:55:54Z

<p>Qnesa01: Qnesa01 uploaded a new version of File:Reinforc.jpg</p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Apple.jpg&diff=17261 2019-01-23T11:40:51Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17260 2019-01-23T11:40:26Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> [[File:Reinforc.jpg|thumb|centre|Reinforcing loop ]] <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.<br /> [[File:Balanc.jpg|thumb|centre|Balancing loop ]] <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> [[File:Apple.jpg|thumb|centre|Exponential Business Growth: A Smartphone Case Study [4] ]] <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> 3. Oil based economy<br /> [[File:Oil.jpg|thumb|centre| Countries with oil-based economy]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Oil.jpg&diff=17259 2019-01-23T11:28:47Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17258 2019-01-23T11:28:21Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> [[File:Reinforc.jpg|thumb|centre|Reinforcing loop ]] <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.<br /> [[File:Balanc.jpg|thumb|centre|Balancing loop ]] <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> 3. Oil based economy<br /> [[File:Oil.jpg|thumb|centre| Countries with oil-based economy]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Balanc.jpg&diff=17257 2019-01-23T10:49:03Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Reinforc.jpg&diff=17256 2019-01-23T10:48:40Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17255 2019-01-23T10:48:21Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> [[File:Reinforc.jpg|thumb|centre|Reinforcing loop ]] <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.<br /> [[File:Balanc.jpg|thumb|centre|Balancing loop ]] <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17254 2019-01-23T10:47:29Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> [[File:Reinforcing.jpg|thumb|centre|Reinforcing loop ]] <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved.<br /> [[File:Balanc.jpg|thumb|centre|Balancing loop ]] <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17246 2019-01-23T09:56:17Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> Now let us take a look at real situation of one company. A company was one of the first companies who understood how popular smartphones can be. Even if A was not the first company who invented smartphones, it was first company which smartphones became popular. The invention of the smartphone is often attributed to A, but they actually made the smartphone something mainstream due to the company's popularity in the world and they made popular the way that people interact with smartphones. <br /> <br /> Then smartphone demand increased, and new competitors entered market with their own new models of smartphones. Of course, it had to make pressure on prices. Eventually, prices would be driven down. And A used its favourite strategy – product branding. Due to branding effect they can keep premium prices with some investments in product features. <br /> <br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Fire.jpg&diff=17245 2019-01-23T09:54:18Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17244 2019-01-23T09:53:59Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 1. When fire starts, it will take more and more territory until whole island will be burnt.<br /> [[File:Fire.jpg|thumb|centre|Island with fire ]] <br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17243 2019-01-23T09:48:57Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Fishing.jpg&diff=17242 2019-01-23T09:47:53Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17241 2019-01-23T09:47:39Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> [[File:Fishing.jpg|thumb|centre|Fishing ]] <br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17240 2019-01-23T09:41:55Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:WoM-2.jpg&diff=17239 2019-01-23T09:40:31Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17238 2019-01-23T09:39:40Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> # In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> # How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> [[File:WoM-2.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> # Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> # MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17237 2019-01-23T09:38:48Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> # 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> # 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> # 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:WoM.jpg&diff=17236 2019-01-23T09:33:33Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17235 2019-01-23T09:33:20Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> [[File:WoM.jpg|thumb|centre|Word of Mouth ]] <br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17234 2019-01-23T09:13:54Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> ==3.Smartphones==<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Behavior_over_time.jpg&diff=17233 2019-01-23T09:06:01Z

<p>Qnesa01: William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002</p> <hr /> <div>== Summary ==<br /> William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17232 2019-01-23T09:04:45Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> [[File:Behavior over time.jpg|thumb|centre|Behaviour over time [2] ]] <br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17231 2019-01-23T09:03:17Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons [2] ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17230 2019-01-23T09:02:48Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg|thumb|centre|The Tragedy of the Commons ]] <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Generic_Archetype.jpg&diff=17229 2019-01-23T08:58:21Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17228 2019-01-23T08:58:08Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. [[File:Generic_Archetype.jpg]]<br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17227 2019-01-23T08:57:25Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.<br /> =References=<br /> 1. MILDEOVÁ, Stanislava. Systémová dynamika: tvorba modelu. Vyd. 1. Praha: Oeconomica, 2011. 150 s. ISBN 978-80-245-1842-8. <br /> 2. William Braun “The System Archetypes” 2002 https://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf <br /> 3. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens “Limits to growth” Universe books 1972. 221 p. ISBN 0-87663-165-0</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17226 2019-01-23T08:32:23Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or '''limits to success''' is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17225 2019-01-23T08:32:00Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> '''Limits to growth''' or limits to success is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17224 2019-01-23T08:31:24Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>Limits to growth<br /> Limits to growth or limits to success is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Overload_streets.jpg&diff=17223 2019-01-23T08:27:05Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Lights.jpg&diff=17222 2019-01-23T08:25:15Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17221 2019-01-23T08:24:44Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> ==Agents==<br /> ===Cars===<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ===Lights ===<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> ==Simulation==<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1lQvVZ3vT0v7vbdrB8h-z90zoPm-_Vu] and txt [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1046uIxKZQSapg791CYw330YfJAFio13V] and all pictures was uploaded google.drive. <br /> As simulace.info does not allow to upload it directly (no permission)</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17220 2019-01-23T08:24:21Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> ==Agents==<br /> ===Cars===<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ===Lights ===<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> =Simulation=<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1lQvVZ3vT0v7vbdrB8h-z90zoPm-_Vu] and txt [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1046uIxKZQSapg791CYw330YfJAFio13V] and all pictures was uploaded google.drive. <br /> As simulace.info does not allow to upload it directly (no permission)</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Argentinska_Intersection&diff=17219 2019-01-23T08:23:21Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Situation=<br /> Argentinska street is one of the important roads in Prague that connects Bubenské nábřeží with bridge “Barikádníků”. It leads from city centre and other parts of city outside to the northern part of the country, and to Germany or Poland. Moreover, Argentinska street connects hospital “Na Bulovce” with city centre and other parts. For emergency vehicles it is the way how to get faster, where help is needed. <br /> <br /> =Problem Definition=<br /> <br /> There is traffic on the road during mornings and evenings, which makes people wait sometimes hours to get out and more important makes difficult pass for emergency vehicles. <br /> <br /> ==Purpose of Simulation==<br /> In the scope is part of Argentinska street from Bubenské nábřeží till Dělnická street plus street Za Viaduktem, part of Jateční and part of Tusarova street as they have influence on the whole situation of Argentinska traffic. The purpose of the simulation is to find ways how to make traffic less. In order to do it will be checked, first, if it is possible to change lights more efficiently for cars flow. Second, answer the question – if we can add only one line only to one direction, which direction we have to choose: to city centre or from city centre?<br /> <br /> ==Tool for simulations==<br /> For this simulation was used NetLogo 6.0.4. This software is suitable for multi-agent system. <br /> <br /> ==Brief process of simulation ==<br /> * Data collection. Data will be collected manually (observation) and from HERE traffic API. Manually for morning, midday and evening during 30 mins each part of the day within one week. At the end of data collecting the average distribution will be made based on the data. <br /> * Real situation simulation <br /> * Based on simulation of real situation will be checked the efficiency of lights changes <br /> * The hypothetical model of adding one more line will be created based on simulation of real situation <br /> * Summary<br /> [[File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1qEXeTx6U8NW3uzcZ-cZ2Y_rWuA5jBEIf]<br /> <br /> =Model=<br /> For the purpose of this simulation, the intersections of the streets Argentinska, Delnicka, Jatecni, Tusarova and Za Viaduktem were simulated. World size was set to {{-30,..,30},{-30,..,30}}Where roads are grey, and sidewalks are brown. Roads with determined flows are with arrows of direction. Around roads and sidewalks there are houses and trees. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street down (to city center) and then turn right to street Za Viaduktem. <br /> * The number of cars going from Delnicka are not that significant, from right flow cars should go up on Argentinska and from left flow should go down on Argentinska. <br /> * The cars coming from Argentinska street up (from city center) have four flows. Cars from left flow go left to the street Za Viaduktem. Cars from right flow go left to Jatecni street. Two lines in the middle are going up on Argentinska street. <br /> * Then from Argentinska cars can go right first on Tusarova street and go right on Delnicka <br /> * This simulation allows the cars to change lines, when it is possible<br /> Breeds of the Model:<br /> * breed [cars car]<br /> * breed[houses house]<br /> * breed[trees tree]<br /> * breed[crossings crossing]<br /> * breed [pedestrians pedestrian]<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR]<br /> * breed [lightsL lightL]<br /> * breed [lightsU lightU]<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD]<br /> * breed[lightsK lightK]<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM]<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN]<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO]<br /> ==Initial setup view==<br /> [[File:Model_initial_view.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HD7Cdzp57yOsRTe3PqHXEMbj_urfjMtO]<br /> =Agents=<br /> ==Cars==<br /> Cars are coming from the start point - beginning of Argentinska up, Argentinska down, Delnicka street. They are using roads that are displayed in grey colors in this simulation. Cars will stop, if any other car or pedestrians are in front of it, or if there is red light in front. And then disappear in the simulation at the end of Za Viaduktem, Tusarova, Delnicka and Argentinska up.<br /> * speed car's current speed<br /> * maxSpeed each car has its own maximum speed depending on the global maximum speeed (little bit lower or higher)<br /> * will-turn? whether car is going to turn or not<br /> * will-stop? whether the car will stop <br /> * direction direction of flow <br /> ==Lights ==<br /> There are two intersection with lights. First intersection Argentinska – Delnicka. Second intersection is more complicated between streets Argentinska, Jatecni and Za Viaduktem. <br /> Lights on the street Argentinska have longer green light as they are more important for city network. <br /> Lights interval controls light change<br /> <br /> =Simulation=<br /> The target of simulation is to find the most effective light-change time and reduce number of cars, that are waiting to pass the intersection. The traffic usually appears during pick time, which is morning - when all people are going to work and evening - when they are coming back respectively. That is why the simulation was set with data which represent evening situation. During evening cars are slightly moving on main Argentinska street : <br /> [[File:Overload_streets.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h4xyoXKJUDxPHerK6UtqiXPvKeJ2wjvM]<br /> <br /> To find optimal time for lights the light interval was set as slider to control it during simulation run. The code for lights controlling and for change of Light D as example:<br /> [[File:Lights.jpg]] [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QT8SjUvle8Kv4aQwWypLRwUlzYM3wJc8]<br /> /Each light has its own breed:<br /> * breed[lightsR lightR] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska up) <br /> * breed [lightsL lightL] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (Argentinska down) <br /> * breed [lightsU lightU] - Argentinska -&gt; Za Viaduktem<br /> * breed [lightsD lightD] - Argentinska and Delnicka intersection (From Delnicka to Argentinska) <br /> * breed[lightsK lightK] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Jatecni to Argentinska)<br /> * breed [lightsM lightM] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska right line to Jatecni)<br /> * breed [lightsN lightN] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (From Argentinska left line to Za Viaduktem)<br /> * breed [lightsO lightO] - Argentinksa and Jatecni intersection (Two main lines of Argentinska direct)<br /> =Conclusion=<br /> Based on simulation the optimal time for each light was set as below <br /> ==Intersection Argentinska – Delnicka==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street <br /> green – 26s red - 20s<br /> * car lights for Delnicka street <br /> green – 15s red - 42s<br /> ==Intersection Argentinska, Za Viaduktem, Jatecni==<br /> * car lights for Argentinska street main flow <br /> green – 35s red - 35s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Za Viaduktem street <br /> green – 32s red - 24s<br /> <br /> * car lights for Jatecni street <br /> green - 20s red - 51s<br /> <br /> =Code=<br /> Code in nlogo [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1lQvVZ3vT0v7vbdrB8h-z90zoPm-_Vu] and txt [https://drive.google.com/open?id=1046uIxKZQSapg791CYw330YfJAFio13V] and all pictures was uploaded google.drive. <br /> As simulace.info does not allow to upload it directly (no permission)</div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Model_initial_view.jpg&diff=17218 2019-01-23T08:21:05Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=File:Argentinska_gmaps.jpg&diff=17217 2019-01-23T08:19:16Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div></div>

Qnesa01 http://www.simulace.info/index.php?title=Limits_to_Growth_ver2&diff=17101 2019-01-20T16:58:20Z

<p>Qnesa01: </p> <hr /> <div>=Limits to growth=<br /> Limits to growth or limits to success is one of the system archetypes. This archetype is useful for gaining insight into patterns of behavior, which shows that growth cannot be continuous, there are always limits that eventually appear. This idea was introduced in the book “Limits to growth” by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William Behrens in 1972. <br /> =Introduction= <br /> Scientists from all over the world are worried about overpopulation of our planet. It is clear right now that resources of the planet are limited, and some people already feel lack of them. The question is for how long our planet will be able to feed exponentially growing popularity. Exactly this situation describes the book “Limits to growth”, based on five elements – population, food production, industrialization, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. All these five elements have exponential growth. To understand when the factor of limited resources will stop this growth the archetype Limits to growth is perfectly suitable. <br /> =Generic Archetype=<br /> Limits to growth archetype is system with reinforcing growth loops. The archetype is combination of two basic structures: reinforcing loop and balancing loop. <br /> <br /> ==Reinforcing loop==<br /> Reinforcing loop shows action and effect of its action. It is also known as positive feedback loop. This simple structure occurs in isolation from additional influences. The action from reinforcing loop produces result, which has influence on the same action. For example, number of births per year is growing and the population is growing too. If population is growing, number of birth per year is also growing. This cycle is continuous. <br /> ==Balancing loop==<br /> Balancing loop has also name of negative or goal-seeking loop. It represents the gap between current state and desired state. The current state is the way things are right now, the desire state is goal or objective. That loop got its name - goal-seeking. It represents the situation, when there is a goal and efforts are taken to achieve it. The gap is a motivation for action and the size of gap shows the tendency to produce action. When gap is 0, there is no more motivation for action. Same as reinforcing loop, balancing loop occurs in isolation from additional influences. For example, to fulfil pool 100 l of water is necessary (desire state). The current level is 10 l (current state). The gap is 90 l. Next action is to add 90 l of water, then the current state will be 100 l, gap will become 0. The goal will be achieved. <br /> =Limits to growth archetype=<br /> The limits to growth structure consists, as it was said above, of a reinforcing loop, the growth of which, after successful performance, is breaking by balancing loop. The limits to growth shows that there is no unrestricted positive reinforcing dynamic. There are always limits that will make influence on growth. <br /> From the reinforcing loop the growing action adds to result, which then adds to growing action. At the same time this loop is interacting with balancing loop. Balancing loop operating with slowing action. The slowing action then deduct from the result.<br /> ==Behaviour over time==<br /> At the beginning, it is necessary to make effort to start the process of growth. That is why in initial stage the rate of effort is higher than performance. But it does not last long, soon it effects success, perhaps with exponential growth. However, in long term perspective the exponential growth is not continuous. As the limits are approached, the performance starts to lose its effectiveness and the rate goes down. At the end, even if the effort is still growing, the growth of performance rate stops and then reverses. Without eliminating limits, the system will be collapsed. The archetype shows that rapid success in short perspective not always lead to long-term success. By creating diagrams and mapping situation with architype, the risk points can be determined in advanced before they become a threat.<br /> ==Solutions==<br /> Even if the limit to growth systems at the end slow down any growth or even lead to collapse, there are some steps how to eliminate this destructive result. There are limits in the system, that need to be removed before continuing to drive the process of growth. To remove these limits or at least to minimize the effect, links between the growth and limiting factors should be identified to manage the balance between them. Always better to be proactive and identify limiting factors before they start to affect the process of growth. <br /> Seven Action Steps [2]<br /> * Identify the growth engines. <br /> * Determine the doubling time of those processes. <br /> * Identify potential limits and balancing loops <br /> * Determine change required to deal effectively with the limits identified.<br /> * Assess the time needed to change. Is there a discrepancy between the doubling time and the changes required to support growth? <br /> * Balance the growth. Identify strategies for achieving system balance. <br /> * Reevaluate the growth strategy. Continuously challenge assumptions<br /> ==Management==<br /> In daily business life the limit to growth archetype can be also useful. It reminds to take a break and examine why there is no growth, when extra effort is added. Probably, in this situation there are some limits that pushing the result back against the effort. Usually, there are two sources from where counter-force can come: from external environment or from part of organization, that is not under manager control. Managers always have to be proactive to see risks and encourage people to make changes, when it is necessary. And by locating limits to growth and reducing or removing them, managers may increase their own performance and performance of the whole team. <br /> =Example= <br /> ==1. Fishing ==<br /> There is a lake full of fish, that was discovered by fisherman. Fisherman is surprised about the place and starts fishing. Of course, he cannot keep it secret. He would like to boast in front of his friends. Next day already number of fishermen increased and amount of fish that was taken out of lake is higher. Every day there were more and more fishermen, which caused overfishing. At the end lake is empty. The fish population got collapsed.<br /> ==2. Word of mouth ==<br /> One of the most effective advertisement is “word of mouth”. When one satisfied customer tells his friend about the company or product and attract these friends as further customers. We can show growth of customers using limits to growths archetype. We begin with one customer that had positive experience with the product. This customer becomes satisfied customer and tells his three friends about the product. They also decide to buy the product. The demand is rising. The number of customers now 4. And let’s assume that all of them are satisfied with the product and also shared the information among their friends. <br /> In reinforcing loop number of customer adds to number of satisfied customer. Number of satisfied customer adds to “word of mouth” and “word of mouth” adds to demand. This reinforcing loop drives the growth of customers <br /> While the reinforcing loop drives the increase in number of customer, number of customer is subtracting from the addressable market. The addressable market has dependency on market size, that company has right now. Continue to interact with each other about the product customers make addressable market smaller and yet to a smaller and smaller extent as the addressable market decreases. At some point the decrease in addressable market will be such that there will no longer be a growth in demand. At this point the addressable market has been addressed, and word of mouth will not be useful anymore.<br /> =Exercise= <br /> ==Questions==<br /> 1. In the middle of the lake there is a beautiful island with forest. People from villages around usually go there for picnics. During one dry summer Mr. Smith left his cigarette with spark and fire started. Please create the diagram to illustrate this situation, if you know that there is no rain in the forecast and people have no resources for firefighting. <br /> 2. How to address the situation from the second example “word of mouth” and make effective strategy? <br /> 3. Limits of Growth is used when system has limited resources. This is example of countries with oil-based economy. Economy is growing while country has oil and may collapse without cheap oil or without demand on it. Please illustrate situation with two limits: oil availability and oil demand<br /> ==Answers==<br /> 2. To make effective strategy management should work with limitation factor, which is in our case market size. To make market size lager, company should change product or add new product/service to force people to use again word of mouth and say again something new about the company, product or services.</div>

Qnesa01