Simulace.info - User contributions [en]

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-15T18:29:45Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].

==Simulations==

--[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]

-- [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:29, 15 January 2017 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova [[Optimal schedule of Moscow metro]]

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators & Prey]]

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-15T18:29:08Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-15T18:26:48Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].

==Simulations==

--[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]

-- [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:26, 15 January 2017 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova
--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators & Prey]]

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-15T18:25:57Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].

==Simulations==

--[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]

-- [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:25, 15 January 2017 (CET)[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) Kateryna Ushanova [[Optimal schedule of Moscow metro]]

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators & Prey]]

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-15T18:24:53Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].

==Simulations==

--[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]

--[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) Kateryna Ushanova [[Optimal schedule of Moscow metro]]

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators & Prey]]

Optimal schedule of Moscow metro

2017-01-15T18:23:48Z

Xushk00: Created page with "''Project name'': Optimal schedule of Moscow metro ''Class'': 4IT496 Simulation of Systems (WS 2016/2017) ''Author'': Bc. Kateryna Ushanova ''Model type'': Agent-based simu..."

''Project name'': Optimal schedule of Moscow metro

''Class'': 4IT496 Simulation of Systems (WS 2016/2017)

''Author'': Bc. Kateryna Ushanova

''Model type'': Agent-based simulation

''Software used:'' NetLogo

=Introduction=

The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow subway. The input data have been taken from [http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/205954] and [http://www.prgp.ru/articles/obzory-issledovaniy/metro_traffic/]

= Problem definition=

Nowadays subway is one of the most used types of transport. In order to increase productivity and prevent some traffic jams in metro this simulation was created.
In this simulation you can observe and control by yourself situations in different parts of the day:

- peak hour - which commonly takes place from 7 a.m. till 10 a.m. and from 4 p.m. till 7 p.m.

- off-peak hour - rest of the day

= Method =

Environment: NetLogo 5.3.1

= Goals of the simulation =

- To figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs

- Find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay

- To find out how to minimized amount of waiting people at stations

= Description of the simulation =

===Interface===

The grafical user interface of the model

[[File:interface_sub.jpg|900px ]]

===Key parameters:===

'''train_delay''' - delay time of each train. Time interval between trains

'''train_capacity''' - capacity of one train. One train contains 10 real people

'''rank_xy''' - number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour) - Different parameter for each station

'''numb_of_stat''' - number of stations

'''pass_speed''' - level of passenger's speed

=== Buttons===

''SETUP'' button creates the metro map and passengers.

''GO'' - start the simulation.´

[[File:sliders.jpg|right|500px ]]

=== Sliders ===

''TRAIN_DELAY''

''TRAIN_CAPACITY''

''NUMB_OF_STAT''

''PASS_SPEED''

''RANK_XY''

===Graphs===

''' Capacity of metro'''

Graph shows capacity of metro during one hour. Progress in this graph depends on many parameters like train capacity and train delay.

[[ file:Graph 1.png|500px ]]

''' Amount passengers in the station'''

This graph shows amount of passengers who are waiting the train.

[[ file:Graph 2.png|500px ]]

=How does the simulation work=

In this simulation I used different parameters. Some of this parameters have min and max value.
Station_id in the parameter Passenger indicates in which station this passenger will go out. Outgoing passengers show under the platform and then disappear. If the station is overcrowded people will turn red and another passengers cannot go to this platform.
Parameter station indicated as station_min and station_max that means possible amount of people which can be in this station at one moment. Tne number of people is a random number. Final station has set 0 because there cannot be any departures. Due to the large number of people (most probably in peak-hour} the train can delay. It is additional 0,5 tick of waiting for train departures. In the station can be only one train at the moment. So in case of delay the next train have to wait in tunnel until the station will be free. To observe situation I'm metro more deeply I also created parameter Rank_(number of station) for each station which user can control by yourself. This parameter indicates probability that passenger will exit the train in this station.

Moscow metro is very big, has 13 lines and 203 stations.

[[ file:Moscow-Metro-Map.gif|700px ]]

In this work I choose Kolcevaya line which has 12 stations. Length of the line is 19,4 km ( on the picture above it's brown line number 5 )

In the source [http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/205954] I found average daily passenger number in the line Kolcevaya in total (69405 person) and in each stations. In the picture it is in Russian language.

[[ file:Average.jpg|600px ]]

= Results =

The goal of the simulation is to observe Moscow metro and one of the line - Kolcevaya. This simulation was created as one-way traffic. Based on the data of average passenger number each station has his own ratio.

Simulation is observed in two parts - peak-hour and off-peak

=== Peak-hour ===
Analyzing the simulation I figured out that if the train delay is 30 or less it leads to traffic jam and train have to wait in tunnel until the station will be free. Capacity of metro is near 98000 person per hour.
The optimal delay between trains is 45-60 sec.

[[ file:Peak-hour.png|800px ]]

Some of stations are overcrowded

[[ file:Peak-hour1.png|800px ]]

=== Off-peak ===

In rest of the day when it is not peak-hour people don't hurry up. Parameter which shows level of passenger speed I reduced and train capacity in this period is more. So in the off-peak part of the day when delay between trains is 26 - it doesn't lead to traffic jams and stations are not overcrowded.

The optimal delay between trains is 26-50 sec. Capacity of metro is near 50000 person per hour.

[[ file:Off-peak-hour.png|800px ]]

=Conclusion=

"Playing" with different parameters in this simulation I can say that because of a large number of people in Moscow metro there is need of train frequancies.
I found the optimal ratio in peak-hour and off-peak. Comparing with timetable of Moscow metro the numbers are quite similar but in real life we can see overcrowded stations in peak-hour. But in my opinion is not a problem of transport company but of extralarge number of people and this stations are not adapted.

=Code=
[[File:Moscow_metro.nlogo]]

=External links=
Moscow subway http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/205954

Passenger traffic on the lines in Moscow metro http://www.prgp.ru/articles/obzory-issledovaniy/metro_traffic//

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2017-01-15T18:20:13Z

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WS 2016/2017

2017-01-10T12:55:51Z

Xushk00: /* Simulations */

Growth and Underinvestment

2016-12-28T14:02:13Z

Xushk00: Created page with "== Introduction == '''Growth and Underinvestment''' is the archetype that brings special attention to planning for limits. ''Archetypes'' are a classification of systems be..."

== Introduction ==

'''Growth and Underinvestment''' is the archetype that brings special attention to planning for limits.

''Archetypes'' are a classification of systems behaviour. They give us a relatively easy tool to spot and forecast behaviour and develop a response plan for instituting changes to meet objectives. Archetypes were first identified in the 1930s by biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy and expanded by Peter Senge in his books The Fifth Dimension and The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook.
There are only 16 unique archetypes and two are the basis of all the remaining 14, the balancing loop and reinforcing loops. All of the other archetypes are combinations of these two structures.<ref>J.Alex Sherrer, ''A PROJECT MANAGER'S GUIDE TO SYSTEMS THINKING: PART II'' 24 Jul 2010 https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/project-managers-guide-to-systems-thinking-part-2.php </ref>

Primarily archetypes are useful for formulating plans. After planning and formulating the means by which managers expect to reach their organizational ends, the archetypes can be used to test whether all conditions under consideration may be modificating the organizational structure in the way to produce the archetypal behavior. If managers will approve, before the changes are adopted and embedded in the organization’s structure they can take remedial action.

Also archetypes are useful for receiving the “nature” of the problem and for offering a basic strategy or foundation upon which a model can be developed and improved. Almost all archetypes are not sufficient models in and of themselves. They are general and can't indicate important variables that are part of the real system structure of a specific organization. It is a problem for managers to determine specific leverage points where changes in structure can achieve sustainable changes in system behavior.

There are ten ''archetypes'' which are acknowledged as forming the set of tools for describing behaviour of systems:

* Limits to Growth (aka Limits to Success)

* Shifting the Burden

* Eroding Goals

* Escalation

* Success to the Successful

* Tragedy of the Commons

* Fixes that Fail

* Growth and Underinvestment

* Accidental Adversaries

* Attractiveness Principle

'''The Growth and Underinvestment Archetype''' is one of the common system archetype patterns and a part of the system dynamics discipline.

[[System Dynamics]] is a perspective and set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. System dynamics is also a rigorous modeling method that enables us to build formal computer simulations of complex systems and use them to design more effective policies and organizations. Together, these tools allow us to create management flight simulators-microworlds where space and time can be compressed and slowed so we can experience the long-term side effects of decisions, speed learning, develop our understanding of complex systems, and design structures and strategies for greater success.<ref> STERMAN, John. ''Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World'' ISBN 0-07-231135-5 </ref>

''The Systems Archetypes'' describe common patterns of behavior in organizations. As diagnostic tools they provide insight into the underlying structures from which behavior over time and discreet events emerge. As prospective tools, they alert managers to future unintended consequences. Collectively they challenge managers to consider the merits of fundamental solutions by making time an explicit variable in decision making.<ref name="multiple">William Braun, ''The System Archetypes'' 27.02.2012 [online] http://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf</ref>

== The Growth and Underinvestment Archetype ==

A Growth and Underinvestment structure builds upon Limits to Growth where the growth inhibitor is part of another Balancing Loop with an external standard and delay. The real nasty thing about this structure is that the two balancing loops form a single reinforcing loop which inhibits growth.

The “Growth and Underinvestment” systems archetype consists of two types of feedback loops. A feedback loop occurs when a change in something ultimately comes back to cause a further change in the same thing. If the further change is in the same direction it’s a positive or ''reinforcing loop''. If it’s in the opposite direction it’s a negative or ''balancing loop'', also called a goal-seeking loop.

[[File:ReinforcingLoop.png|right|300px|capture|framed|'''Reinforcing loop (Harich and Bangerter, 2014)''']]

=== Reinforcing loops ===
Positive feedback loops occur when an initial change is reinvested to further that change in the future. The bigger the initial push, the bigger the consequential push. Reinforcing loops get things moving. They build momentum. When change is agile or growth persists, reinforcing loops are often at play.

''Examples:''

- When immigrants settle in a particular part of a foreign land, they build infrastructure and provide services, creating an environment that in turn attracts more people like them. This leads to the formation of large homogenous ethnic neighborhoods like China town in San Francisco.

- When a company’s product is successful, people will talk about it and through word of mouth, the product will become even more successful.<ref> Systems and Us. ''Reinforcing Loop''. https://systemsandus.com/reinforcing-loops/ </ref>

=== Balancing Loops ===
Negative feedback loops are circles of cause and effect that counter a change with a push in the opposite direction. The harder the push, the harder the system pushes back. Balancing feedback loops bring stability or stubbornness to a system (depending on how it is perceived), so they are essential and pervasive.

Often in a balancing feedback loop, there is some sort of implicit or explicit goal. When the distance between your car and the car in front of you increases you accelerate, closing the gap. When the distance between you and the car becomes less than your desired distance (you’re to close) you will decelerate, either letting the friction of the road slow you down or applying the breaks.

[[File:BalancingLoop.png|right|300px|framed|'''Balancing loop (Harich and Bangerter, 2014)''']]

''Examples:''

- When the internal temperature of your body increases, you sweat, and as that sweat evaporates from the warm surface of your body, you cool down: balancing the initial increase. When you are cool, you sweat less, so there is less sweat to evaporate and it drains less heat allowing your body temperature to rise. At the same time, if your body temperature drops you may start shivering, releasing more heat to warm your body, balancing the initial decrease. In biology, the concept of homeostasis is all about balancing feedback. Cells and living organisms and humans have evolved myriad mechanisms for keeping themselves and their immediate environments stable.

- When a company has too much inventory supply that it needs to get rid of, it cuts prices to attract more customers to buy their product. This in turn leads to the supply depleting.<ref> Systems and Us. ''Balancing Loop''. https://systemsandus.com/balancing-loops/ </ref>

=== Balancing Loops with delay ===
Is a variation of the standard balancing loop. There are one or more delays in the structure which are responsible for producing a very different behavior pattern than with the standard balancing loop.

Delays could exists between the time the action is taken and the time current state changes, or between the time current state actually changes and the time it is realized in order to affect the extent of the action being taken. The affect being that the action will continue to add to the current state at a level above what it should. This is essentially an overreaction which will tend to drive the current state beyond the desired state and the gap will go negative. The structure's reaction to this is to run in reverse, if this is possible for the particular instance described by the structure. The delay may be such as to cause overreaction in the opposite direction to move the current state below the current state. With a sufficient delay the structure will result in larger and larger oscillations over time. <ref> Gene Bellinger, ''Balancing Loop with delay'' 2004 http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/sbd/bd.htm </ref>

''Example:''

[[File:delay.gif|right|300px|framed|'''Balancing loop with delay (Gene Bellinger, 2004)''']]

When the current water temperature is less than the desired water temperature it influences the person to add to the ratio of the hot water to cold. It possible by increasing the hot water or decreasing the cold water. Because changing the faucet position doesn't result in an immediate change in the current water temperature there is a tendency to believe that the ratio isn't correct so the next decision to turn the faucets more in the same direction. When the delay finally catches up, the current water temperature is much hotter than the desired water temperature so logically adjust the faucets in the opposite direction. This action still adds to the ratio of hot water to cold, just less than before. Depending on requests of person and his reaction on the situation, it could take some time before the water temperature will be normal.

'''Example - The “Growth and Underinvestment” systems archetype'''

Archetype consists of three loops. In the first loop (upper left), as the organization's ''Growing Action'' increases, ''Demand'' also increases in a reinforcing loop. However, in the second loop (middle) as ''Demand'' increases, the organization's ''Performance'' must also increase to keep pace with the ''Demand'' (a classic “supply and demand” relationship)— and by satisfying that ''Demand'', it declines in a balancing loop. The third loop (lower right) describes the organization's ''Capacity'', and shows a balancing loop in which current ''Performance'' is compared to an existing ''Performance Standard''. As ''Performance declines'', the ''Perceived Need'' to ''Invest'' increases, so ''Investment in Capacity'' is increased, and after a delay, ''Capacity'' increases.
Increased ''Capacity'', in turn, then increases ''Performance''. Again, it is the time delays that ultimately make it easier to reduce the ''Growing Action'' than to make the required ''Investment in Capacity''.

We will see that “Growth and Underinvestment” has at its heart a “Limits to Growth” (or “Limits to Success”) archetype. The extra loop (B2) illustrates how failing performance can be used to justify underinvesting in the very capacity that is necessary to avert the limit to growth.<ref> William E. Novak, Linda Levine; ''Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes
to Beat the Odds'' [online] September 2010. CMU/SEI-2010-TR-016 ESC-TR-2010-016 http://www.sei.cmu.edu/reports/10tr016.pdf </ref>

[[File:Growth and underinvestment.png|center|300px|framed| ''' (The Growth and Underinvestment, B.Jana)''']]

== Behavior of Archetype ==

The Growth and Underinvestment archetype builds upon [[Limits to Growth]] by explicitly addressing a firm’s need to invest in its own resources, capabilities and core competencies. A growing action seeks to stimulate and reinforce demand while the firm’s current performance level may behave as the limit to its growth. Similar to Limits to Growth, if current performance is adversely affecting demand, no amount of growing action will overcome customers’ reluctance to reward the organization with sales.<ref name="multiple">William Braun, ''The System Archetypes'', 27.02.2012 [online] http://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf </ref>

Uncommon to Growth and Underinvestment is the long-term requirement to continue keep in and improve the main skills at a level that ensures its competitive advantage. There are several characteristics of the investment balancing loop that are very important in decision making:

1) Performance standards are constant. This can be temporarily or it can be a tendency that has developed over long periods of time.

2) When the firm’s current performance combine with the standards this leads to a corrosive influence on the perceived need for investment.

3) Declining of performance leads to declining revenue which in turn reduces cash available for investment.

4) Even if the organization makes an investment, if it has not expected the delay in bringing the increased capacity and capability on line, it may turn out to be a long run for a short slide.

=== Behavior Over Time ===

The correct signal that archetype is at work is when data shows performance which declines and grows at the same time that the rate of investment is slowing or falling.

If demand outstrips capacity, performance can suffer and hurt demand. If this dynamic is not recognized, the decrease in demand can then be used as a reason not to invest in the needed capacity. This archetype can be used to ensure that investment decisions are viewed from a fresh perspective, rather than relying on past decisions.

== Dynamic Theory ==

This archetype applies when growth approaches a limit that can be overcome if capacity investments are made. If a system is stretched beyond its limit, it will compensate by lowering performance standards, which reduces the perceived need for investment. It also leads to lower performance, which further justifies underinvestment over time.<ref name="multiple">William Braun, ''The System Archetypes'', 27.02.2012 [online] http://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf </ref>

== Growth and Underinvestment with a Drifting Standard ==

Structure where the growth inhibitor induces a decline of the standard over time is a A Growth and Underinvestment with a Drifting Standard. This structure is a variation of Growth and Underinvestment structure. The growth inhibitor influence establishes a Reinforcing Loop which promotes a drifting of the standard over time. Behaviour of this archetype forces the standard easily change over time and in the result need for change less, resulting in less motivation to initiate a change, which leads to lower overall growth.

The ''strategies'' of Growth and Underinvestment with a Drifting Standard:

* The standard should be based on objectives that aren't connected to the lower goals caused by the inhibiting factor.
* The standard is not influenced by the growth inhibitor.
* The effective strategy is foresigh.

[[File:Drifting Standard.png|center|300px|framed| ''' (The Growth and Underinvestment with a Drifting Standard, B.Jana)''']]

== Example ==
Two chefs started a new restaurant business. At the beginning the demand is low and the two are able to provide service at high level. After a while people spoted about new restaurant, good service,food and prices, so in restaurant they have more customers. But the owners are reluctant to add more personnel and equipment and as customers become more, the two of them can't offer the same level of high quality like at the beginning and as their quality falls, demand drops back down.

[[File:Restaurant.PNG|center|300px|framed| ''' (Example - The Growth and Underinvestment)''']]

== Example for reflection ==

[[File:Shareholders.jpg|right|framed| ''' (Example - The Growth and Underinvestment, W. Braun)''']]

Shareholders historically treat the business firm as a wealth generator for their families.
There is typically a tension between the desire to remove profits from the practice and the need to invest in infrastructure, especially technology. Over time, performance slips so far, that patients find it increasingly difficult to receive care at the practice, mostly for operational reasons (though clinical equipment and technology could likewise be
affected.)

* Identify interlocking patterns of behavior between capacity investments and performance measures.
* Identify delays between when performance falls and when additional capacity comes on line.
* Quantify and minimize acquisition delays.
* Identify related capacity shortfalls. Are other parts of the system too sluggish to benefit from added capacity? <ref name="multiple">William Braun, ''The System Archetypes'', 27.02.2012 [online] http://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf </ref>

== References ==
<references />

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2016-12-26T15:37:51Z

Xushk00: By B Jana - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6893326

By B Jana - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6893326

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2016-12-26T14:00:42Z

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2016-12-25T21:00:32Z

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Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-18T17:45:46Z

Xushk00: /* Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) */

{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}

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Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
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{{Ambox
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Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].
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In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.
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== Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==

The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.
Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.

The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?

Method: Monte carlo Simulation;
Program: Excel

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)

Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)

I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's).

I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==

Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).

- Each team can have 1 – 10 players

- Each team begins opposite of each other

- Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)

- One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)

- When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy

- If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased

- When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)

First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)

--- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Software Developers (xvatj00) ==

=== Description ===
There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.
Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.
Method: Simprocess

=== Goal of the Simulation ===
The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.

Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)

- Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a "soft" process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)

- Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)

: I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a "soft" field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and "hard" part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==

This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.
In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:

1) applying medium-sized police force

2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force

3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time

The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.

The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime.
Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime:

1)the level of the city (user controls)

2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)

'''The goal of this simulation is:
'''

- to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.

- to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.

- to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.

'''Method - NetLogo

Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)

- The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova

: You strive to work with very "soft" characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)

=== Optimal schedule of Moscow metro (NEW ASSIGNMENT) ===

The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.

Key parametrs:

- periodicity of people travalling by metro

- delay time of each train

- number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)

- capacity of train

The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.

Method: NetLogo

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 18:43, 18 December 2016 (CET) xushk00, Kateryna Ushanova

== (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==

NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.

Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.

-adjustable poison release

Goal:
Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.

[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)

- Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)

--Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==

Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from.

Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)
: This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==

My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo.
The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.
These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.

The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.

[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)

Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the "economical state exactly" and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters?
System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)

I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant.
The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.
The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.
I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)

So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==

I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries.
The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.
In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.

I should also be able to relate this to game theory.

[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==
Software: Simproces

Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.
Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the "call-out infosystem".
This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).
Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.

Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.

: Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==

A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the "Stará budova" at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the "VŠE Maps" project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.

The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go.
I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck.

[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==

Software: Vensim

Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.

Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.

Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).

[[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)

OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)

== The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==

NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.
The model town is Rio de Janiero.
Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland.
Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic.
Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.
Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.
The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.
The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)

I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==

There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.

''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''

'''Depression spreading on social media'''
There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p>50% man is "optimist", if p<50% man is "pessimist"). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad.
''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo< because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++
''
: The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==
Environment: NetLogo

Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables.
As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.

Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.

: Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-18T17:44:37Z

Xushk00: /* NEW ASSIGNMENT */

{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}

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Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
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Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].
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In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.
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== Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==

The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.
Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.

The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?

Method: Monte carlo Simulation;
Program: Excel

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)

Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)

I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's).

I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==

Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).

- Each team can have 1 – 10 players

- Each team begins opposite of each other

- Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)

- One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)

- When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy

- If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased

- When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)

First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)

--- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Software Developers (xvatj00) ==

=== Description ===
There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.
Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.
Method: Simprocess

=== Goal of the Simulation ===
The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.

Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)

- Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a "soft" process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)

- Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)

: I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a "soft" field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and "hard" part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==

This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.
In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:

1) applying medium-sized police force

2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force

3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time

The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.

The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime.
Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime:

1)the level of the city (user controls)

2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)

'''The goal of this simulation is:
'''

- to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.

- to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.

- to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.

'''Method - NetLogo

Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)

- The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova

: You strive to work with very "soft" characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)

=== NEW ASSIGNMENT ===

=== Optimal schedule of Moscow metro ===

The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.

Key parametrs:

- periodicity of people travalling by metro

- delay time of each train

- number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)

- capacity of train

The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.

Method: NetLogo

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 18:43, 18 December 2016 (CET) xushk00, Kateryna Ushanova

== (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==

NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.

Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.

-adjustable poison release

Goal:
Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.

[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)

- Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)

--Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==

Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from.

Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)
: This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==

My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo.
The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.
These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.

The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.

[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)

Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the "economical state exactly" and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters?
System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)

I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant.
The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.
The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.
I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)

So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==

I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries.
The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.
In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.

I should also be able to relate this to game theory.

[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==
Software: Simproces

Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.
Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the "call-out infosystem".
This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).
Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.

Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.

: Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==

A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the "Stará budova" at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the "VŠE Maps" project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.

The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go.
I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck.

[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==

Software: Vensim

Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.

Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.

Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).

[[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)

OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)

== The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==

NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.
The model town is Rio de Janiero.
Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland.
Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic.
Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.
Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.
The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.
The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)

I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==

There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.

''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''

'''Depression spreading on social media'''
There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p>50% man is "optimist", if p<50% man is "pessimist"). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad.
''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo< because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++
''
: The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==
Environment: NetLogo

Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables.
As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.

Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.

: Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-18T17:43:07Z

Xushk00: /* Optimal schedule of Moscow metro */

{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}

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Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
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Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].
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In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.
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== Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==

The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.
Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.

The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?

Method: Monte carlo Simulation;
Program: Excel

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)

Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)

I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's).

I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==

Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).

- Each team can have 1 – 10 players

- Each team begins opposite of each other

- Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)

- One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)

- When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy

- If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased

- When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)

First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)

--- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Software Developers (xvatj00) ==

=== Description ===
There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.
Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.
Method: Simprocess

=== Goal of the Simulation ===
The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.

Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)

- Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a "soft" process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)

- Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)

: I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a "soft" field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and "hard" part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==

This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.
In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:

1) applying medium-sized police force

2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force

3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time

The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.

The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime.
Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime:

1)the level of the city (user controls)

2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)

'''The goal of this simulation is:
'''

- to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.

- to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.

- to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.

'''Method - NetLogo

Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)

- The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova

: You strive to work with very "soft" characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== NEW ASSIGNMENT ==

=== Optimal schedule of Moscow metro ===

The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.

Key parametrs:

- periodicity of people travalling by metro

- delay time of each train

- number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)

- capacity of train

The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.

Method: NetLogo

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 18:43, 18 December 2016 (CET) xushk00, Kateryna Ushanova

== (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==

NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.

Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.

-adjustable poison release

Goal:
Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.

[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)

- Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)

--Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==

Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from.

Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)
: This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==

My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo.
The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.
These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.

The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.

[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)

Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the "economical state exactly" and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters?
System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)

I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant.
The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.
The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.
I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)

So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==

I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries.
The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.
In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.

I should also be able to relate this to game theory.

[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==
Software: Simproces

Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.
Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the "call-out infosystem".
This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).
Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.

Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.

: Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==

A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the "Stará budova" at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the "VŠE Maps" project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.

The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go.
I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck.

[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==

Software: Vensim

Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.

Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.

Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).

[[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)

OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)

== The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==

NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.
The model town is Rio de Janiero.
Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland.
Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic.
Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.
Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.
The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.
The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)

I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==

There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.

''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''

'''Depression spreading on social media'''
There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p>50% man is "optimist", if p<50% man is "pessimist"). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad.
''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo< because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++
''
: The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==
Environment: NetLogo

Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables.
As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.

Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.

: Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-18T17:39:51Z

Xushk00: /* Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) */

{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}

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Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
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Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].
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In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.
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== Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==

The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.
Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.

The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?

Method: Monte carlo Simulation;
Program: Excel

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)

Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)

I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's).

I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==

Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).

- Each team can have 1 – 10 players

- Each team begins opposite of each other

- Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)

- One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)

- When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy

- If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased

- When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)

First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)

--- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Software Developers (xvatj00) ==

=== Description ===
There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.
Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.
Method: Simprocess

=== Goal of the Simulation ===
The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.

Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)

- Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a "soft" process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)

- Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)

: I am sorry, but I don't see an added value in this topic. Software development is really a "soft" field, every project is different, every developer is different, they are specialized for particular things, etc. etc. And, the most important for me: I don't see a chance that anyone would - even theoretically - use your simulation to help their business. Don't take me wrong, I don't expect that all the simulations we do here will be used in a real company for a real purpose, however, in some cases, it would be at least theoretically possible after some elaboration (like the grocery store example). In the case of software development simulation, as you suggested, I really cannot imagine that anyone would ever use it for a real business. Please, either try to find a particular, well structured and "hard" part of the problem and reformulate or try something completely different. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:29, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==

This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.
In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:

1) applying medium-sized police force

2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force

3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time

The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.

The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime.
Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime:

1)the level of the city (user controls)

2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)

'''The goal of this simulation is:
'''

- to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.

- to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.

- to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.

'''Method - NetLogo

Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)

- The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova

: You strive to work with very "soft" characteristics like the experience of police officers, willingness to become a criminal... How would you simulate it? How would you measure it? What source of data would you use? I am afraid it would be very risky for you, because you could have trouble to prove that the model is meaningful. I suggest to find something else. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:33, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== NEW ASSIGNMENT ==

=== Optimal schedule of Moscow metro ===

The simulation will show situation in Moscow metro in different parts of the day (peak hour and off-peak hour). In this simulation i will find optimal time of train´s delay in concrete line in Moscow metro. The input numbers will be taken from resource with real data.

Key parametrs:

- periodicity of people travalling by metro

- delay time of each train

- number of passengers in the station (it depends on part of the day (e.g. peak hour)

- capacity of train

The main goal is to figure out in which situations traffic jams occurs and find the optimal ratio between number of travellers and time of delay.

Method: NetLogo

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) xushk00

== (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==

NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.

Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.

-adjustable poison release

Goal:
Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.

[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)

- Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)

--Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: As we discussed, the simulation is rather simple. But it is acceptable if you focus on data, its correct representation, scaling, and overall fit with reality. I prefer a simpler model with perfect output that someone could use for a real problem over a complex model that would be completely useless. But, beware: it is a complicated and risky way. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:39, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==

Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from.

Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)
: This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''approved''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==

My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo.
The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.
These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.

The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.

[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Maybe the system dynamics model could be more suitable, since this model would be too complicated for NetLogo.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 10:39, 17 December 2016 (CET)

Please elaborate the simulation topic further, currently it is too general. Importers and exporters of what kind of goods? On basis of which theory (there are many that are trying to find the equilibrium point) ? What kind of market? Who will be the participants? What is the "economical state exactly" and what effect it should have on the importers and exporters?
System dynamics may be applicable, but the further detail for this decision is necessary.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 16:06, 17 December 2016 (CET)

I would follow the process exactly as it is taught here on VSE. Meaning the influences on the enviroment would be monetary and fiscal state interventions on the market. The number of the exporters importers would be variable. The type of participants and type of goods should be irrelevant.
The importers/exporters would react on changes in money supply/demand change after the intervention.
The goal would be to show the next equilibrium and how long does it take to find.
I am still ready to change this subject completely if it seems not appropriate for this assignment.
[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:54, 17 December 2016 (CET)

So far the description, you have given, is very abstract - the causalities seem unclear to me. That's why I have asked whether you have it based on some firm theory and that you are confident you can create a simulation on basis of it. If you do, go for it, if not, I would rather pick some less abstract topic as it might be easier to develop the simulation.
[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 10:02, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==

I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries.
The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.
In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.

I should also be able to relate this to game theory.

[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: It is a very interesting problem but could be very complicated. Please, elaborate on how exactly would you solve it. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:41, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==
Software: Simproces

Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.
Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the "call-out infosystem".
This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).
Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.

Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.

: Good idea, but it is invetable to obtain data from a real post office. Doesn't necessarily need to be from the main post office. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:43, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==

A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the "Stará budova" at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the "VŠE Maps" project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.

The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go.
I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck.

[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: OK, sounds good. But, don't forget to consider real speeds of people, some intelligent movement, a speed of spreading fire, obstacles, etc. etc. Could be quite complex, but very interesting. '''Approved'''. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 13:46, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society (Filip Vacula, xvacf01) ==

Software: Vensim

Description: A system dynamics simulation, modelling the behaviour of a simplified society on the verge of an epidemic. The model is much simplified as opposed to the reality, which would be almost impossible to model. However, my main objective is to keep the main and most important factors in play, to be able to observe their behaviour.

Goal: The main goal is to observe the effect of distribution of society to 3 categories based on their yearly income, and how much can the spreading of the epidemic be influenced by the health care system in place (government-funded vs. government-unfunded). However, with a highly parametric model, the effect of many more variables can be easily observed. A side goal is to observe the most critical interactions inside the system, which could lead to a faster treatment of the population in case of such epidemic.

Model environment: The epidemic has a chance of transferring to another person by him being in the same room as an infected person for at least 30 minutes. Such encounters between people daily would be from a discrete interval. The chance is further lowered by a vaccination, which becomes available on the 30th day after the start of the epidemic, however has only a small efficiency, and is also quite costly. A highly effective treatment becomes available 180 days after the epidemic has started, but is again very costly. The production of both the vaccines and treatment takes roughly 30 days to fully satisfy the demand of the population (linearly).

[[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:59, 16 December 2016 (CET)

OK, '''approved''', just be aware of the the fact that the Vensim cannot do spacial simulations (like people moving in some space).

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 15:56, 17 December 2016 (CET)

== The strength of tsunami (Hana Nápravníková, xnaph00) ==

NetLogo simulation describes the effects of the tsunami on the coast of Brazil.
The model town is Rio de Janiero.
Sea begins to reverse some people will notice that. Residents begin to warn others of the impending tidal wave of themselves do tend to run inland.
Some ignore warnings remain indifferent. Wave approaching, people fleeing in panic.
Elderly citizens remains as the home because they do not know about anything.
Wave hits full force, swept the first dwelling closest to the coast several residents who be enough shelter.
The aim is to determine how strong the tsunami must be to destroy as many buildings many people will be at risk of life.
The estimated death toll will be around 60-70%.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 23:45, 16 December 2016 (CET)

: Wow, this is very ambitious. I would really love to see the result, but I am afraid, it will be incredibly complex to do it this way. Too many factors in the game: the landscape, buildings, people, their panic, how do they behave, physics of the water, etc. etc. etc. Try to narrow the problem down and describe how exactly should the solution look like. Then it could be really good. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:03, 18 December 2016 (CET)

I will work with the following parameters: Wave - speed of 500-700 km/h, the height of 15-30 meters, width of 30-50km. The density of buildings of about 3milion. Population 6,5milion, the area of 1260km2. The result will be 80% of the cities covered by water, the loss of life of 70%, but this may be varied depending on the diversity of the parameters of wave.
--[[User:Hanka|Hanka]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 17:31, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Courier is coming to town (Maria Alekseeva, Mashal) ==

There's a small village with certain number of houses and it doesn't have its own local delivery service, thus once a week a delivery person drives up to this village from a bigger city. Each time this person has a different delivery list and his route is based around that list. If for some reason nobody was able to receive a package at the time that the delivery person was there, he has to come back to the same address until the package is delivered. The simulation in NetLogo will be creating the perfect route for the delivery person based on A* search algorithm, key parameters are the number of times, when delivery person must return to the house and the number of houses.

''But even though I'm dying to make search algoritmus in NetLogo, I'm not quite sure, that this simulation is fine or if it's agent-based... That's why I have one more and I'm asking you to recommend me, which one is better''

'''Depression spreading on social media'''
There is certain number of people and everyone has several parametrs: aktivity (how often writes smth on social media, const), mood (in per sent, changing parameter, if p>50% man is "optimist", if p<50% man is "pessimist"). Optimist can write only sad posts, pessimist writes only happy posts Man can read different posts from people in certain radius and if the post is happy he gets happier and if the post is sad he gets sad. And than he writes his own posts. This simulation will show how one pessimist with a big activity can make the whole society sad.
''I'm not sure if it can be developed in NetLogo< because i need counter for the popularity parameter, but i can do it in C++
''
: The former is definitely better. Regarding the fit of NetLogo for the problem, it is doable and among all four platforms we use, it is the best option for the task indeed. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:18, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: Fine, so I'll do my first version in NetLogo--[[User:Mashal|Mashal]] ([[User talk:Mashal|talk]]) 17:26, 18 December 2016 (CET)

== Ocean currents influencing the temperature of the Earth (Stanislav Vedra, xveds02) ==
Environment: NetLogo

Variables are a certain amount of units of warm water (e.g. caused by the sun) and cool water (e.g. caused by an iceberg) with the same size spread in the environment. Warm and cool water are moving until they reach each other which set off the current. The temperature of the current is decided by 50% chance. The size of the current is a total of the variables.
As well as waters merge, currents do too. With the same size of currents, the rules are the same (50% chance of the temperature). With different size, the winner is the bigger one and takes everything. In both cases, the size of the new current is a total of previous ones.

Variables and currents are mixing until one current will be left. And its temperature means if the Earth is warming or cooling down, which is the goal of the simulation.

: Ok, the problem sounds interesting. How you will deal with real data? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 14:22, 18 December 2016 (CET)

: The problem with influencing the Earth temperature by ocean currents is very complex not mention it is not all discovered yet, there is not enough data from the past. Therefore, I took this little part of it and the provided data will be still an estimation. The simulation is mainly for illustrative purposes. Although I will try to get to the reality as close as I can, alternatively add scroll bar/input box to choose desired data, but I would rather not promise anything realistic. I hope I answered you question? --[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 18:14, 18 December 2016 (CET)

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-15T18:39:26Z

Xushk00: /* Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) */

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-11T12:35:48Z

Xushk00: /* Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) */

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-11T12:33:04Z

Xushk00: