Simulace.info - User contributions [en]

File:Results.xlsx

2017-01-31T23:16:09Z

Xzelz06: Xzelz06 načetl novou verzi File:Results.xlsx

School on fire

2017-01-31T22:08:36Z

Xzelz06:

== Intro ==

The purpose of this simulation is to show how long it takes to get everybody out of the first floor of Stará Budova building at the VŠE university campus in Prague. It should demonstrate the basic behaviors of people during such circumstances, taking into account several variables including: different speeds of people, spread of fire, inflow of people from higher floors, smoke cloud and more. Unlike in many evacuation models, this one is special because students and techers alike know their way around the building and can find exits very easily.

=== Software ===

Simulation is created using Netlogo 5.3.1.

== The Model==

=== The Setup ===
Most of the work is done in setup. First an accurate plan of the building is imported. It paints all patches with specific colors ( black = wall, green = hall, blue = stairs down etc.) making the model easily readable not only for user, but turtles too.
[[File:Planek3.png|frame|plán budovy]]

Next, all walkable patches (= not walls and not outside) are assigned a value. Patches in the hall get a value indicating the distance from them to the nearest exit. If there are no exits in sight, distance to a specific orientation patch is assigned instead. Other patches (inside classrooms, bathrooms etc.) are also assigned a value, but this time based on the distance to the door + a constant which makes all the values in the rooms greater then the values in the hall. Walls are given a value of 1000, which is higher then all the rest.

In the end the building is filled with people and a fire is started at a random spot inside.

Note: Assigning all the values does a lot of calculations and can be quite lenghty, however it only takes place once, when the setup is run for the first time, as it doesn't have to be reset every time, since the distances never change. This approach also makes the model run smooth afterwards.

=== Let's Simulate ===

The simulating starts when an emergency alarm is turned on. First people check where they are, judging by the color of the patch they are standing on. If they are in the room, they wait a certain amount of time, representing their reaction time and overall time it takes for them to get moving (like packing stuff and such). Then they start moving towards the door. When they reach the hall they join with the people already here and they all head to the nearest exit. Different people have different reaction times and speed (average speed considered as 1.1 m/s <ref> http://www.pelastusopisto.fi/download/35629_T2562.pdf </ref> ).

In the meantime a fire is spreading across the simulation. It is spreading slower across walls and after a while some parts also completely burn out. All people who come to contact with it are immidiately killed off. What's more it creates a hefty cloud of smoke. Smoke spreads faster, but it can't go through walls. It also doesn't kill immidiately as it takes a while to choke in it. (approx. 2-10 minutes <ref> https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fire-smoke-inhalation-dangerous-number-one-cause-death-camy-thumwood </ref>) To make it even harder they might get crushed in the panicking crowd.

== How to use it ==

Using this simulation is super easy. Like many others, it containts two selfexplanatory buttons: setup and go. Besides these, there is a slider, chooser and a couple monitors.

=== Slider - number of people ===

This slider changes the overall amount of people present. This number is then taken as a seed while filling the classrooms and all other spaces in the building. Default value of 10 indicates average amount of people. 1 means just a few people and 20 is edging the classrooms capacity. The distribution isn't 100% accurate, but for the sake of this simulation should be sufficient.

=== Chooser - time period ===

Here one can choose a time during tuition or a time during a break. During tuition the majority of people is in the classrooms and just a few in the hall and vice versa.

=== Monitors ===

There are six monitors total . First (# of casualties) says how many people died, no matter the cause. Right below are three more, showing what the cause was. Next (# of survivors) says how many people managed to get out of the building unscathed. Last one (# of people inside) says how many people are still inside the simulation and trying to escape. The simulation ends when this monitor reaches zero.

=== Plot ===

Last but not least is the plot. It tracks two values mentioned above: people that died (red line) and people that got away (green line) and shows how these values progress while the simulation is running.

== Results ==

I ran the simulation multiple times with different settings. First interesting result is, that the plot didn't change much between simulating with density of people set to 5 or 20. It always rougly followed the curve showed in the picure below. It shows that a big chunk of people get out early and then it steadily slows down as slower individuals and also people from higher floors find their way out. This behavior doesn't change with more people as the stairways are broad enough and the crowds don't necessarily get stuck.

[[File:10TT.png]]

What does change with the amount of people is the total time it takes to get every last person out of the building. Next graph shows what happens. The period is more than doubled if we increase the amount of people to max, which is however to be expected. On the other hand and to my surprise there was no impact whatsoever between choosing a break and a tuition in progress time period. One would assume that the reaction times alone would cause a delay, but in the end it doesn't make a sizable difference, mainly because the last people to leave the building are those coming from the higher floors,for which this the reaction times aren't considered.

[[File:Graph1.png]]

I also managed to identify 1 bottle neck in the architecture of the building illustrated in the picture below. It shows that the door on the way to the stairway to Nová Budova creates quite a weak spot. Relatively big crowds get stuck here while running the simulation with higher ''people-density''. This is interesting, because the door is quite a new addition, as they are not in the plans from 2003. However in the plans there is another almost surely problematic door which have been removed a couple years ago during the reconstruction of the computer classrooms. This door would have a similar effect and thus it is positive that it has been removed.

[[File:Badspot2.png]]

The results also show, what the deadliest cause is. After 40 simulations, fire proved to be the primary killer in such situations. This however can be attributed to just a couple simulations, where people got cut off and couldn't get through. If this happened, the results were alarming. Next on the list is smoke, which was very consistent and took atleast one life in more then half simulations. A bit behind is getting ran over in a stampede. This value was influenced the most by increasing the amount of people, but even then the values are comparatively small.

For more information check the enclosed xls.

== Conclusion ==

I created a simulation demonstating how would people behave in a case that a fire would break in the school. What is more i also consider the way movement is implemented to be quite nice as the model runs very swiftly in comparison with many other evacuation models.<ref> http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Fire_evacuation_simulation</ref> The results clearly show that the building is quite well designed with enough space to allow the majority of people to escape. The simulation also shows how long it takes to get everyone out of the building and identifies a weak spot, that can be considered for further analysis.

--[[User:Xzelz06|Xzelz06]] ([[User talk:Xzelz06|talk]]) 23:02, 31 January 2017 (CET)

== Files ==
[[File:Firesim.nlogo]]

[[:File:Planek2.png]]

Note: Please download the picture to the same folder before running the simulation.

[[File:Results.xlsx]]

== References ==
<references/>

WS 2016/2017

2017-01-31T22:05:51Z

Xzelz06:

Semestral papers from winter term 2016/2017. Please, put here links to the pages with your paper. First you need to have your [[Assignments WS 2016/2017|assignment approved]].

==Simulations==

--[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 01:23, 18 December 2016 (CET) [[Poison and Insect Population]]

-- [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:29, 15 January 2017 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova [[Optimal schedule of Moscow metro]]

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 13:51, 14 January 2017 (CET) Naďa Bednárová [[Phyllotaxis]]

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 22:24, 14 January 2017 (CET) [[Predators & Prey]]

--[[User:Robert|Robert B.]] ([[User talk:Robert|talk]]) 09:42, 16 January 2017 (CET) [[Simulation of spreading of sexually transmitted infections]]

--[[User:Hanka|xnaph00]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 13:42, 16 January 2017 (CET) [[The strength of tsunami]]

--[[User:xzemj34|xzemj34]] ([[User talk:xzemj34|talk]]) 17:05, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Bank branch checkout optimalization]]

--[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 18:27, 17 January 2017 (CET)[[D1 Highway Traffic simulation]]

--[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 19:14, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Spread of Disease]]

--[[User:Xvacf01|Xvacf01]] ([[User talk:Xvacf01|talk]]) 21:53, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Spreading of a fatal epidemic in a simple society]]

--[[User:Xveds|Xveds]] ([[User talk:Xveds|talk]]) 22:54, 17 January 2017 (CET) [[Efficiency of robotic vacuums at home]]

--[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 16:06, 18 January 2017 (CET) [[Portfolio Simulation]]

--[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 23:04, 31 January 2017 (CET) [[School on fire]]

== Papers ==

--[[User:Hanka|xnaph00]] ([[User talk:Hanka|talk]]) 15:00, 22 January 2017 (CET) [[Behavioral patterns in data]]

--[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:05, 24 January 2017 (CET) [[Conceptual Graphs]]

School on fire

2017-01-31T22:02:24Z

2017-01-23T17:37:25Z

Xzelz06: Plánek typické středověké vesnice Zdroj: https://myliteraryquest.wordpress.com/

Plánek typické středověké vesnice
Zdroj: https://myliteraryquest.wordpress.com/

Assignments WS 2016/2017

2016-12-16T20:05:49Z

Xzelz06:

{{DISPLAYTITLE:Assignments WS 2015/2016}}

{{Ambox
| text = <div>
Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
</div>
}}

{{Ambox
| text = <div>
Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read [[How to deal with the simulation assignment|How to deal with the simulation assignment]].
</div>
}}

{{Ambox
| type = content
| text = <div>
In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added '''approved''' in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no '''approved''', it means the assignment was not approved yet.
</div>
}}

== Brownian motion Stock simulation (Willem Van de Velde, wilv00) ==

The simulation will contain the evolution of a portfolio of stocks. Each stock has a certain drift, volatility and initial market price.
Over time the value of a stock change dependent on a brownian motion and the time. A person wants to invest a certain amount of money in stocks.

The goal of this simulation is to see how the persons initial investment will evolve over time, what portfolio structure would be ideal for the initial investment?

Method: Monte carlo Simulation;
Program: Excel

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:52, 13 December 2016 (CET)

Hello, could you be more specific? How many stocks? what will be the options for the simulation user to setup his own portfolio? how will you implement the periodically returning depressions? I would expect that the portfolio should consist from stocks, bonds and deposits and the user would choose between the split of the portfolio among these three financial instruments, rather than choosing particular stocks (as it is done in reality). What will be the source of the data?

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 20:48, 13 December 2016 (CET)

I would use the stock market of my home country (Belgium) so the BEL-20. I would do the simulation with the option of selecting a portfolio that consists indeed of bonds, deposits and stocks taking into account with current market intrest from Belgium and returns on these instruments. I would involve 5 different stocks from the BEL-20 and combine these into a portfolio. So the total simulation would involve a part that is invested in bonds, deposits and a portfolio of 5 stocks (i haven't looked which specific stocks i would use). The goal will than be determing which percentage of his initial investment he would have to invest in bonds, stocks and deposists to maximize his return after a certain period of years (taken into account the different risk measures associated with the different portfolio's).

I wasn't thinking about involving periodically returning depressions. This would mean that after a certain period of time I would have to change the volatility and drift of the stocks and the market intrest right?

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 12:09, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Yes, you have to play with it little bit as the value of the instruments/portfolios changes differently during the depression as you can see for instance in graph [http://www.diffen.com/difference/Bond_vs_Stock here]. These business cycles is what makes the portfolio value prediction so hard, so it is necessary to incorporate them in the simulation. Simulation '''approved'''.

[[User:Oleg.Svatos|Oleg.Svatos]] ([[User talk:Oleg.Svatos|talk]]) 13:43, 14 December 2016 (CET)

Ok, i see. I will incorporate this in the model as well. Thank you.

[[User:Wilv00|Wilv00]] ([[User talk:Wilv00|talk]]) 09:34, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Simulation proposal (Jakub Esterka, xestj00) ==

Simulation (in NETLOGO) will be set up as a FPS computer game (e.g. Counter Strike) with two teams and set number of players in each team (between 1 and 64). Goal of a simulation will be to find out how much more members can other team have for winning rate to be still 50 % in average. Second goal will be to find out how big advantage randomly selected player has to have for his team to dominate (after 10 games). And the third goal is to find the average rate of domination – how many games is needed for one team to start to dominate the other in every game (team members have almost maximum accuracy of 100).

- Each team can have 1 – 10 players

- Each team begins opposite of each other

- Each player moves randomly and have random accuracy (1-20)

- One player from each team can have an advantage (accuracy of 80)

- When two players from opposite teams meet, they shoot at each other with random accuracy

- If one player shoots the other one, he has its shooting accuracy increased

- When all players from one team die, game resets but players keep their accuracy (except for the first goal)

First goal is obligatory and in this research players will not keep their accuracy. If the simulation will work as planned and it will be possible for players to keep their accuracy, other goals are viable as well.

--[[User:Xestj00|Xestj00]] ([[User talk:Xestj00|talk]]) 18:42, 9 December 2016 (CET)

--- I am not generally very happy about simulations regarding video games and other entirely artificial problems, because a real benefit of such a simulation is more than questionable. But, ok... Moreover, in this case, could we be even sure that the results of the simulation really fit the game? Or in other words, how could we be sure that the parameters mentioned above and the way how you will simulate it matches how Counter Strike works? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:11, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Software Developers (xvatj00) ==

=== Description ===
There is a small company for software development. The company takes small orders (around 3 months long) for software. The software development process consists of 3 parts - analysis, coding and testing. For each project, there is a set number of analysts, programmers and testers, who work on the given project (and no other) until it’s finished. There are 2 main types of orders - well defined and very generally defined. For well defined orders (30% of all orders), the average time of the process of analysis is shorter than in case of the generally defined order, and requires less analysts. The company knows the average times of all parts of the development as well as the average salaries of the three positions. Each part of the development also has its probability of delay and average delay (in case delay occurs). There are different scenarios in cases of delays.
Alongside specific positions, there are also “ultimate” workers, who work on the project from its beginning until the end - meaning they do all 3 parts of the development themselves. These workers have higher salaries (all are seniors), but take less time to finish the work.
Method: Simprocess

=== Goal of the Simulation ===
The goal is to see, if it’s more convenient to have specialized workers, or to hire “ultimate” workers instead, and to have an overview of the projects’ employee expenses. To reach the goal, the plan is to create 1 simulation which takes into consideration only the process with the positions divided, and a second simulation which shows the process of “ultimate” workers. In both cases, the process will be taking all the incoming orders - there will be only this one type of process.

Jana Vataščinová, [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 20:29, 10 December 2016 (CET)

- Hi, I am missing the tool you want to use. Moreover, I hesitate a bit, whether such a "soft" process like software development should be analyzed this way. [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:15, 15 December 2016 (CET)

- Good evening, I would like to use Simprocess. I was thinking that the information to the process was quite stable, so I chose the topic, because it sounds interesting to me. [[User:Xvatj00|Xvatj00]] ([[User talk:Xvatj00|talk]]) 01:49, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Police System (Kateryna Ushanova, xushk00) ==

This simulation will show police system and how this system will impact the crime rate of the city. Criminals will try to destroy the city's infrostructre and to make crime against civilians.
In this simulation I will use three strategies that maybe used to fight crime:

1) applying medium-sized police force

2) a strategy in which a small police force attempt to recruit civilians into the police force

3) the police react on the crime in a brief period of time

The most important factor that influence skill of the police to fight the crime is work experience. The amount of experience is propotional to the cost of fighting crime.

The criminals will be walking randomly around the visual area. During their walking there is a random chance that they will commit a crime. When they do the crime, the civilians around them become victims, and the area they occupy becomes a bad zone. Bad zone make people more likely to turn to crime.
Two main factors influence whether or not civilians will turn to crime:

1)the level of the city (user controls)

2)the simulated factors (the result of the police work; the state of the zone; the effects of random events that the user controls)

'''The goal of this simulation is:
'''

- to see how changing the work experience level effects each strategy.

- to test out different strategies and factors to see how this effects the crime rate.

- to observe possible outcomes by changing techniques and factors in a different ways.

'''Method - NetLogo

Kateryna Ushanova, [[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 13:35, 11 December 2016 (CET)

- The idea is not bad, but where are your key parameters for the simulation? How you get them (I mean the exact figures). We always prefer obtaining and working with real numbers. Sometimes, it is not possible, so it is acceptable to use secondary resources, etc. but it should be always clear, why did you use the parameters you used and why, on the other hand [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:23, 15 December 2016 (CET)

Thank you for your comment. My key parametrs are: number of criminals; amount of poverty in the city (which is directly proportional to the willingness of the civilians to become criminals; level of experience of officers. I will use statistical data from my city.

[[User:Xushk00|Xushk00]] ([[User talk:Xushk00|talk]]) 19:38, 15 December 2016 (CET) Kateryna Ushanova

== (Poison and Insect Population, Kellianne Stefl) ==

NetLogo simulation of the steady decline in insect population in Germany from 1989 to now, also future predictions. Many other factors contribute but I will use pesticides in my visual representation.

Over the last 25 years, etymologists have set up tents all over German woodlands and meadows to observe natures insects. The average biomass of insects sampled in a 6-month period (May to October) has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) (56 ounces) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014. 18.9% of the average biomass 25 years ago. This simulation will illuminate the devastating effects of damage to the bottom of the food chain.

-adjustable poison release

Goal:
Predict hypothetical decline of insect population: how many years until there are none left.

[[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 12:47, 12 December 2016 (CET)

- Ok, we talk about entomologysts, not etymologysts, don't we? The topic is generally good, I am just not sure how exactly it will look like. Particularly, I am a bit afraid that the simulation would be pretty simple (e.g. I can see just one parameter now). Please, could you elaborate a bit? [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:43, 15 December 2016 (CET)

--Yes, sorry for the bad wording. Some things that make the simulation more complicated will be: insect reproduction, each will slowly lose energy as they are poisoned by pesticides and some portion will not be able to reproduce. Sorting out how many ounces of insects each pesticide dispenser (airplane) can kill for a given time will be calculated. It will have to be an amount that decreases population even while a certain percentage of insects are still reproducing. I will attempt to use real life data as much as I can to make the simulation as accurate as possible. [[User:Kellistefl|Kellistefl]] ([[User talk:Kellistefl|talk]]) 13:32, 16 December 2016 (CET)

== Phyllotaxis (Nada Bednarova, bedn00) ==

Phyllotaxis is the process of arrangement of leaves on a plant stem. While growing, leaves on a plant/flower/cone usually follow Fibonacci sequences or use golden ratio to form the most convenient angles. There are several theories on where the arrangement comes from.

Simulation in NetLogo would simulate the arrangement of leaves based on different parameters configuration (number and size of the leaves, starting angle etc.). Furthermore chemical or physiological theories about morphogenesis / meristem growth can be simulated (for example Turing's diffusion equations).

--[[User:Bedn00|Bedn00]] ([[User talk:Bedn00|talk]]) 00:07, 15 December 2016 (CET)
: This isn't an agent-based model, however the idea looks interesting, so '''accepted''' [[User:Tomáš|Tomáš]] ([[User talk:Tomáš|talk]]) 01:45, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== The influence of exchange rates and interest rates on importers/exporter (Jakub Vitvar, xvitj27) ==

My goal is to create multi agent simulation in Netlogo.
The simulation will contain sets of producers(agents) domestic and foreign.
These producers will focus on importing or exporting based on current economical state and their choice will have impact on others.

The goal of the simulation is to find out whether the market is able to balance itself. Other goal could be to find out how will the market react if we set some variables manualy.

[[User:Xvitj27|Xvitj27]] ([[User talk:Xvitj27|talk]]) 16:02, 15 December 2016 (CET)

== Corporate Tax Rate's effect on capital influx (André Seyffarth Årnes, aara00) ==

I want to create a simulation in NetLogo that shows how different corporate tax rates in Europe affects the capital influx of countries.
The initial simulation should start with the tax rates that exists in Europe today, and the simulation should show what happens when they change.
In this sense the simulation will only include two different actors, namely nations and companies.

I should also be able to relate this to game theory.

[[User:Aara00|Aara00]] ([[User talk:Aara00|talk]]) 13:28, 16 December 2016 (CET)

== Post office check-out optimalization (Josef Zeman - xzemj34) ==
Software: Simproces

Model: This simulation is going to be focused on optimalization of open check-outs (counters) at the post office.
Given the fact these simulations should be relatable to the real world, I chose ideally the post office of Česká pošta in Jindřišská street (if this one doesnt work out for me, i'll look for another one) where I'd like to get the real numerous data about the visitors from the "call-out infosystem".
This system distributes visitors accordingly to the capacity of the office as well as to selected issue visitiors want to solve (send package, pickup package, czech point, pensions etc.) These data should vary a lot during month since there are certain periods every month when many people have to visit post office (e.g.pensions and social benefits).
Every counter can serve for at least one of the issue mentioned above, most likely for more than one, some may serve to all of them.

Goal of the simulation: Main point is to ideally and optimally assign human resources to counters accordingly given the daytime and the period of month.

== School is on Fire (Zbyněk Zelinka, xzelz06) ==

A simulation in NetLogo describing an evacuation of the "Stará budova" at VŠE. The layout and proportions of the building will be taken from the "VŠE Maps" project. I consider including just the first floor and adding an inflow of people from higher floors. I also intend to base it on a real schedule of the classrooms and compare the outcomes from multiple time periods. There will also be fire patches in the model, limiting the space people can walk in.

The evacuated people will have different speeds and reaction times, also some of them won't know which way to go.
I want to measure the time it takes to get everybody to the safe zone outside the building and find the weak spots where the big crowds get stuck.

[[User:xzelz06|xzelz06]] ([[User talk:xzelz06|talk]]) 20:54, 16 December 2016 (CET)