Fertility vs Intelligence - Revision history

Xzruv00: /* Fertility */

2014-01-15T19:56:12Z

‎Fertility

Xzruv00: /* Related to */

2014-01-15T19:50:08Z

‎Related to

Xzruv00: /* 2.2 Tuning */

2014-01-15T19:49:06Z

‎2.2 Tuning

Xzruv00: /* 2.1 Researches */

2014-01-15T19:47:23Z

‎2.1 Researches

Xzruv00: /* Description */

2014-01-15T19:45:35Z

‎Description

Xzruv00: /* Code */

2014-01-15T19:43:49Z

‎Code

Xzruv00: /* Conclusion */

2014-01-15T19:42:54Z

‎Conclusion

Xzruv00: /* Output */

2014-01-15T19:40:10Z

‎Output

Xzruv00: /* Output */

2014-01-15T19:38:00Z

‎Output

Xzruv00: /* Output */

2014-01-15T18:34:03Z

‎Output

@@ Line 89: / Line 89: @@
 === Fertility ===
-According to [8], total fertility rate is 1.452. That means that each woman is assigned 1.452 of children. Since only approximately 40% of women are married (so far we are not considering single mothers), it means that each of married woman bear (under the same conditions as when the rate was measured) approximately 3.63 of children.
+According to [8], total fertility rate is 1.452. That means that each woman is assigned 1.452 of children. Since only approximately 40% of women are married (so far we are not considering single mothers), it means that each of married woman bears (under the same conditions as when the rate was measured) approximately 3.63 of children.
 Code:
   let IQ-factor (110 - female-IQ) * fert-IQ-dependency * 10

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
 === Related to ===
-All numbers and statistics are taken from the Czech Census Bureau (Český statistický úřad) or related to the Czech Republic, therefore the project considers our country as the one being simulated. The data were used simply because they are easily available in Czech Republic; they all can be taken from this one country, hence the model is more consistent.
+All numbers and statistics are taken from the Czech Census Bureau (Český statistický úřad) or related to the Czech Republic, therefore the project considers our country population as the one being simulated. The data were used simply because they are easily available in Czech Republic; they all can be taken from this one country, hence the model is more consistent.
 === Male/female ratio ===

@@ Line 21: / Line 21: @@
 == 2.2 Tuning ==
-When implementing the simulation, I have decided to amplify certain values (dependencies) in order to reach the results sooner with greater emphasis. The main reasons were a) the slow performance of Netlogo b) usage of ticks as a day → one generation can last about 30,000 ticks c) to be able to actually “see” the results (plots in the simulation) d) to avoid implementing immigration: after implementing the simulation with real numbers without the amplifying numbers the population was dying out (As it is happening in a real world as well). The numbers that have been tuned are devised on prior simulations and observations (e.g. observation of the percentage of coupled people).
+When implementing the simulation, I have decided to amplify certain values (dependencies) in order to reach the results sooner with greater emphasis. The main reasons were a) the slow performance of Netlogo b) usage of ticks as a day → one full generation (there can exist more generations in the same time, but lifetime of one generation would be approximately the number mentioned further) can last about 30,000 ticks c) to be able to actually “see” the results (plots in the simulation) d) to avoid implementing immigration: after implementing the simulation with real numbers without the amplifying numbers the population was dying out (As it is happening in a real world as well). The numbers that have been tuned are devised on prior simulations and observations (e.g. observation of the percentage of coupled people).
 == 2.3 Data ==

@@ Line 18: / Line 18: @@
 There are several papers studying dependence of fertility on the intelligence. For example brilliant study of Gerhard Meisenberg (see [9]) that concerned country level fertility depending not only on IQ, but other factors like education, politics etc. According Gerhard's findings the dependence of fertility on IQ is linear; the fact makes prior researches, from this point of view, of course, valid. E.G. Daniel Vining's research from 1982 in which he discovered high negative correlation of -0.86 [10] (this result has been further questioned, nevertheless, the usage of Pearson correlation coefficient is justified).
-In researches, data sets that were used are not available for the public, therefore it is not possible to inverse the process and gain fertility values for particular IQ. (It would require development of one more simulation and acquisition of data through it's tuning – “trial and error”). Even with the data, the task would probably be way over the course time complexity. Therefore, I have decided to introduce a slider that bears "percentage of dependence" with which it is possible to watch the impact of increasing dependence.
+In researches, data sets that were used are not available for the public, therefore it is not possible to inverse the process and gain fertility values for particular IQ. (It would require development of one more simulation and acquisition of data through it's tuning – “trial and error”). Even with the data, the task would probably be way over the course time complexity. Therefore, I have decided to introduce a slider that bears "level of dependence" with which it is possible to watch the impact of increasing dependence.
 == 2.2 Tuning ==

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 For the simulation I use NetLogo 5.0.4
-=Description=
+=Further description=
 == 2.1 Researches ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:43, 15 January 2014
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	=Code=		=Code=
		+	[[File:iq-vs-fert.nlogo]]

	=Resources=		=Resources=

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:42, 15 January 2014
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	=Conclusion=		=Conclusion=
		+	The graphs showed us that even a partial dependence can have a significant result. We must keep in mind, however, that this simulation works with amplified values and the amplification has been done in matter of thousandfold, therefore what happens here in 20 generations can happen in several thousand generations in the real world. And that would actually confirm theories of Retherford and Sewer or others that predicts decrease of '''less''' than one IQ per generation.
		+
		+	Average IQ around 60 and 6% of population over 110 IQ seems to approximate the equilibrium point, but we needn't fear, because the simulation didn't take into account other attributes that correlate with IQ or fertility like education. In fact, education is one of the most important dependent variables of IQ, because it's this one that actually caused the rapid increase of intelligence (since times when the obligatory school attendance has been introduced).
		+
		+	To conclude the results, the population IQ will decrease slightly over generations unless a new factor will enter the game or another factor would become strengthened or weakened. The group of clever people (above certain value) won't die out, it just gets smaller and as history proved, true genius can come at any time.

	=Code=		=Code=

@@ Line 128: / Line 128: @@
 [[File:r3-avg-iq.png]]
 [[File:r3-percent-above-110.png]]
 =Conclusion=

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:38, 15 January 2014
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	=== Output ===		=== Output ===
		+	[[File:r3-avg-iq.png]]
		+	[[File:r3-percent-above-110.png]]

	=Conclusion=		=Conclusion=

@@ Line 117: / Line 117: @@
 [[File:r2-avg-iq.png]]
 [[File:r2-percent-above-110.png]]
 From the graphs above we can see that middle dependency caused rapid decrease of people over 110 IQ. The percentage of such people dropped on devastating level of 7% in approximately 12 generations. (Such rapid decrease is the result of conditions above, for further explanation see conclusion).
 == Run 3 ==