Retirement Planning - Revision history

Louis: /* Input Variables */

2021-01-19T21:03:14Z

‎Input Variables

2021-01-19T20:38:01Z

‎Excel File

2021-01-19T20:37:19Z

‎Excel File

2021-01-19T20:36:46Z

‎Excel File

2021-01-19T20:33:56Z

‎Conclusion

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‎Results

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‎Results

2021-01-19T20:16:28Z

‎Results

2021-01-19T20:12:36Z

‎Results

2021-01-19T20:11:53Z

‎Results

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:03, 19 January 2021
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	U.S. government bonds have historically never defaulted, so there is no default risk. Moreover, there has never been a Black Swan year. It should be noted that the standard normal distribution can also lead to negative interest rates. Although this has not occurred historically with U.S. government bonds, it is theoretically conceivable (see German government bonds). At a time when discussions about negative interest rates for private investors are being held again and again, this assumption seems realistic.		U.S. government bonds have historically never defaulted, so there is no default risk. Moreover, there has never been a Black Swan year. It should be noted that the standard normal distribution can also lead to negative interest rates. Although this has not occurred historically with U.S. government bonds, it is theoretically conceivable (see German government bonds). At a time when discussions about negative interest rates for private investors are being held again and again, this assumption seems realistic.
		+
		+	For the investment in the 5 preceding years, an equal distribution of 20% each was chosen. In addition, the real YTMs (Yield to Maturity) were chosen. These were:
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		+	2016: 1,3194%
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		+	2017: 1,9161%
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		+	2018: 2,7328%
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		+	2019: 1,8985%
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		+	2020: 0,4506%

	== Results ==		== Results ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:38, 19 January 2021
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	== Excel File ==		== Excel File ==

−	[[File:Retirement Simulation.xlsx]	+	[[File:Retirement Simulation.xlsx]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:37, 19 January 2021
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	== Excel File ==		== Excel File ==

−	[[File~~:ile~~:Retirement Simulation.xlsx]]	+	[[File:Retirement Simulation.xlsx]

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:36, 19 January 2021
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	== Excel File ==		== Excel File ==
		+
		+	[[File:ile:Retirement Simulation.xlsx]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:33, 19 January 2021
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	== Conclusion ==		== Conclusion ==

		+	In conclusion, it can be said that an investment in the selected stock portfolio is significantly riskier. Although it holds the possibility of high profits, on the other hand, it also holds harsh losses. In particular, the stock portfolio is strongly dependent on how many Black Swan months occur.

		+	The investment in government bonds, on the other hand, is much safer, but also has lower chances of extremely high profits.
		+
		+	In the end, it is up to each individual to decide which portfolio to invest in. However, since it is a pension plan and the risk profile of both investments is very different, I think that most people choose to invest in government bonds.

	== Excel File ==		== Excel File ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:19, 19 January 2021
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	[[File:Retirement-8.png]]		[[File:Retirement-8.png]]
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		+
		+	Finally, the results are adjusted for the results of the inflation simulation:
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		+	[[File:Retirement-9.png]]

	== Conclusion ==		== Conclusion ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:17, 19 January 2021
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	[[File:Retirement-7.png\|1000px]]		[[File:Retirement-7.png\|1000px]]
		+

	The following table contains the corresponding final values:		The following table contains the corresponding final values:

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:16, 19 January 2021
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	[[File:Retirement-7.png\|1000px]]		[[File:Retirement-7.png\|1000px]]
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		+	The following table contains the corresponding final values:
		+
		+	[[File:Retirement-8.png]]

	== Conclusion ==		== Conclusion ==

@@ Line 156: / Line 156: @@
 The expected evolution of the total invested capital is shown in this graphic:
-[[File:Retirement-7.png]]
+[[File:Retirement-7.png|1000px]]
 == Conclusion ==

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:11, 19 January 2021
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	[[File:Retirement-6.png]]		[[File:Retirement-6.png]]
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		+
		+	'''Bond Investment'''
		+
		+	The expected evolution of the total invested capital is shown in this graphic:
		+
		+	[[File:Retirement-7.png]]

	== Conclusion ==		== Conclusion ==