Twitter simulation - Revision history

Botd00 at 08:10, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T08:10:42Z

Botd00 at 06:28, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:28:46Z

Botd00 at 06:21, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:21:25Z

Botd00 at 06:18, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:18:35Z

Botd00 at 06:16, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:16:13Z

Botd00 at 06:15, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:15:31Z

Botd00 at 06:14, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T06:14:51Z

Botd00 at 05:53, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T05:53:36Z

Botd00 at 05:51, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T05:51:23Z

Botd00 at 04:35, 23 January 2023

2023-01-23T04:35:53Z

@@ Line 28: / Line 28: @@
 [[File:Distsap500.png|Distribution of S&P500 historical annual return changes data|center|500px|]]
@@ Line 79: / Line 83: @@
 S&P500 has a low probability of loss (being worse off than the initial investment) and the expected profits are better than in case of Twitter Inc. The new owner would have to basically double the market cap change up to now to outperform S&P500 but on the other hand there is a higher chance of loss since the company simply has not been around long enough to have enough historical data to make assumptions from.
-Even if we look at the simulation of a predicted net income in 10 years based on 2 000 simulations:
+Even if we look at the simulation of a predicted net income (starting at 0 USD) in 10 years based on 2 000 simulations:
 {| class="wikitable" style="margin: auto;"
 |+Simulation results in millions of USD

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:28, 23 January 2023
Line 78:		Line 78:

	S&P500 has a low probability of loss (being worse off than the initial investment) and the expected profits are better than in case of Twitter Inc. The new owner would have to basically double the market cap change up to now to outperform S&P500 but on the other hand there is a higher chance of loss since the company simply has not been around long enough to have enough historical data to make assumptions from.		S&P500 has a low probability of loss (being worse off than the initial investment) and the expected profits are better than in case of Twitter Inc. The new owner would have to basically double the market cap change up to now to outperform S&P500 but on the other hand there is a higher chance of loss since the company simply has not been around long enough to have enough historical data to make assumptions from.
		+
		+	Even if we look at the simulation of a predicted net income in 10 years based on 2 000 simulations:
		+	{\| class="wikitable" style="margin: auto;"
		+	\|+Simulation results in millions of USD
		+	\|-
		+	\|
		+	\|'''Average expected value in 10 years'''
		+	\|'''Probability of loss'''
		+	\|'''Minimum'''
		+	\|'''Maximum'''
		+	\|-
		+	\|'''Net income average:'''
		+	\| -934.94
		+	\|65 %
		+	\| -9 342.42
		+	\|7 224.95
		+	\|}
		+
		+	We can see that there is a high chance that Twitter will suffer a net loss in 10 years (as it has been pretty much consistently since its inception).

	Looking at recent information about new changes in the company like laying off a lot of employees, new Twitter subscription possibilities etc., it's obvious that the new owner is trying hard to end this trend and make the company start earning money.		Looking at recent information about new changes in the company like laying off a lot of employees, new Twitter subscription possibilities etc., it's obvious that the new owner is trying hard to end this trend and make the company start earning money.

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 ==Method==
 The simulation was done using Monte Carlo simulation in Microsoft Excel.
 ==Simulation==

@@ Line 18: / Line 18: @@
 Although the data doesn't precisely follow one specific distribution (there are some outliers), based on the plotted graphs the normal distribution was chosen for the simulations as it's probably the distribution the data follows the closest.
 [[File:Distmc.png|Distribution of Twitter's historical annual market cap changes data|center|500px|]]
 [[File:Distsap500.png|Distribution of S&P500 historical annual return changes data|center|500px|]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:16, 23 January 2023
Line 20:		Line 20:

	[[File:Distmc.png\|Distribution of Twitter's historical annual market cap changes data\|center\|500px\|]]		[[File:Distmc.png\|Distribution of Twitter's historical annual market cap changes data\|center\|500px\|]]
		+
		+

	[[File:Distsap500.png\|Distribution of S&P500 historical annual return changes data\|center\|500px\|]]		[[File:Distsap500.png\|Distribution of S&P500 historical annual return changes data\|center\|500px\|]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:15, 23 January 2023
Line 19:		Line 19:
	Although the data doesn't precisely follow one specific distribution (there are some outliers), based on the plotted graphs the normal distribution was chosen for the simulations as it's probably the distribution the data follows the closest.		Although the data doesn't precisely follow one specific distribution (there are some outliers), based on the plotted graphs the normal distribution was chosen for the simulations as it's probably the distribution the data follows the closest.

−	[[File:Distmc.png\|Distribution of Twitter's historical market cap changes data\|center\|500px\|]]	+	[[File:Distmc.png\|Distribution of Twitter's historical annual market cap changes data\|center\|500px\|]]
		+
		+	[[File:Distsap500.png\|Distribution of S&P500 historical annual return changes data\|center\|500px\|]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:14, 23 January 2023
Line 18:		Line 18:

	Although the data doesn't precisely follow one specific distribution (there are some outliers), based on the plotted graphs the normal distribution was chosen for the simulations as it's probably the distribution the data follows the closest.		Although the data doesn't precisely follow one specific distribution (there are some outliers), based on the plotted graphs the normal distribution was chosen for the simulations as it's probably the distribution the data follows the closest.
		+
		+	[[File:Distmc.png\|Distribution of Twitter's historical market cap changes data\|center\|500px\|]]
		+

@@ Line 22: / Line 22: @@
 ==Results==
-The predicted results after 1 000 simulations – average expected value in 10 years, probability of loss and minimum and maximum amounts in the simulations are listed in the table below:
+The predicted results after 1 000 simulations for an initial investment of 44 billion USD (=44 000 million USD) – average expected value in 10 years, probability of loss and minimum and maximum amounts in the simulations are listed in the table below:
 {| class="wikitable" style="margin: auto;"
-|+Simulation results
+|+Simulation results in millions of USD
 |-
+|

@@ Line 70: / Line 70: @@
 Looking at recent information about new changes in the company like laying off a lot of employees, new Twitter subscription possibilities etc., it's obvious that the new owner is trying hard to end this trend and make the company start earning money.
-==Sources==
 ==Code==
 The Excel file: [[File:TwitterMonteCarlo.xlsx]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:35, 23 January 2023
Line 22:		Line 22:
	==Results==		==Results==

−	The predicted results – average expected value in 10 years, probability of loss and minimum and maximum amounts in the simulations are listed in the table below:	+	The predicted results after 1 000 simulations – average expected value in 10 years, probability of loss and minimum and maximum amounts in the simulations are listed in the table below: