Difference between revisions of "Assignments WS 2020/2021"
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'''Method''' : simprocess
'''Method''' : simprocess
==Lawn Mower Roboter==
==Lawn Mower Roboter==
Revision as of 14:37, 20 December 2020
Please, put here your assignments. Do not forget to sign them. You can use ~~~~ (four tildas) for an automatic signature. Use Show preview in order to check the result before your final sumbition.
Please, strive to formulate your assignment carefully. We expect an adequate effort to formulate the assignment as it is your semestral paper. Do not forget that your main goal is a research paper. It means your simulation model must generate the results that are specific, measurable and verifiable. Think twice how you will develop your model, which entities you will use, draw a model diagram, consider what you will measure. No sooner than when you have a good idea about the model, submit your assignment. And of course, read How to deal with the simulation assignment.
Topics on gambling, cards, etc. are not welcome.
In order to avoid possible confusion, please, check if you have added approved in bold somewhere in our comment under your submission. If there is no approved, it means the assignment was not approved yet.
- 1 Spread of 19-COVID
- 2 NFL Free Agency
- 3 COVID-19 mass testing
- 4 Operation of private dental office
- 5 Widening the spread between rich and poor
- 6 Rhino population in Africa
- 7 Garbage collection
- 8 Trends of weddings in the future
- 9 IT Team simulation
- 10 COVID 19 symptoms
- 11 car acquisition
- 12 Lawn Mower Roboter
- 13 Retirement Planning and the impact of inflation
- 14 Covid 19 - Contact Tracing
- 15 Evolution of retirement pay in the Czech Republic
- 16 Castle Siege
- 17 Hunting Sharks Simulation
- 18 Risk Simulation in Banking
- 19 Effects of VAT exemption abolition to imported low value consignments
- 20 Comparing multiple airplane boarding methods
- 21 Predicting acceptance rate in high school entry exams
- 22 Craft brewery
Spread of 19-COVID
Simulation : I will build a dynamic model of an epidemic his the dynamic issues. I will focus on the spread of Covid-19 in a population and Specially I will try to modelize the effect of a lockdown on the number of infections and deaths. I will start with a susceptible population, with one infected people that infect 10 people with a certain probability. When you are infected you go the doctors and with a certain probability you go in the recovery population or in the hospital. Then you have a percentage of chance to die in this hospital or to recover. The lockdown will triggered when the ratio of people who where to the doctor and total population exceed a certain percentage. We lockdown and by reducing the number of people you infect in the beginning.
Goal of simulation : I aim to model the impact of a lockdown on the spread of COVID on a population. It will also show the difference between countries, for example if we lockdown too late. What will be the impact of these decisions.
Method : I will use VensimPLE for this simulation, as it is a dynamic system, and In my home university I know that I will need to use VensimPLE for a future project and course so it will help me a lot.
- The topic souds good - the question is, on what data sources will you base your simulation (equations) on? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 22:13, 12 December 2020 (CET)
- I will use the case of Switzerland and use data from this website (https://corona-data.ch). I will try to reproduce the number of cases and the speed of the spread.Toscool (talk) 13:39, 13 December 2020 (CET)
- OK. Approved but do not forget to include in the report for the simulation how you have derived the equations in the simulation from the data. Oleg.Svatos (talk) 22:49, 14 December 2020 (CET)
- The topic souds good - the question is, on what data sources will you base your simulation (equations) on? Oleg.Svatos (talk) 22:13, 12 December 2020 (CET)
NFL Free Agency
Simulation : Free agency is a period during the off-season in the National Football League in the US. During that period, all 32 teams in the league can sign active players that have no contract with any other team, so-called free agents. The process goes as follows: at the beginning of free agency a certain amount of players become free agents due to expiring contracts. All players belong to one out of 8 position groups and want to receive a certain salary. Their starting position on the simulation grid is randomly assigned and they will move over the grid. The overall number of free agents is defined manually while they are randomly distributed over all position groups, as well as their desired salary, which is within a certain manually defined range. Whereas all the teams are looking for players from certain position groups and have a certain amount of money they can spend on them. The teams have fixed positions on the grid and do not move during the simulation. The maximum number of players a team is looking for is defined manually, while the desired position group is defined randomly from the list of position groups and the money to spend is randomly distributed over a certain manually defined salary range. When the simulation starts, the initial demand and supply ratio of a specific position is calculated and affects a player’s value. This means a player’s desired salary rises or decreases due to that demand and supply ratio. During the simulation players move over the grid. Players and teams get in touch when they are located next to each other. When a team’s position group needs matches the player’s position group and a player’s salary fits the money a team offers, the team signs this player and he disappears from the free agency market (turtle dies). If the offer doesn’t fit the need, a player walks on to the next team (turtle takes a random angle turn and walks until it approaches another team). Each team can negotiate only with one player at a time, and vice versa. With every round/tick/signing the demand and supply ratio is recalculated and the desired salary of all players in each position group changes and so does the amount of money teams are able to spend on further players (assuming they just signed a player). Free agency ends after a distinct number of ticks or even earlier if there are no more players left or teams do not have any money left to spend.
Goal of simulation : is to find out how a player’s value changes during the period of free agency. Especially interesting is, whether players that sign a new contract early in the period received higher payments or the ones signing late in the period. Maybe a certain strategy can be deducted for players depending on their initial demand and supply ratio in order to reach a highly paid contract.
Method : Since I don’t know VensimPLE yet, I think I will use NetLogo, because I see some similarities between my case and the “Market Structure” case we modelled recently.
- It is a bit unusual, but I can see something in common rather with Market Structure than with Building Escape. Please, just elaborate it into a greater detail and specify, how exactly should your simulation work. I am not sure you have a coherent idea about the solution. But if you work this out, I don't see a problem. Tomáš (talk) 21:45, 11 December 2020 (CET)
- Yeah you are right I meant the Market Structure, sorry for the confusion! Okay, I updated the description above trying to go more into details. TimWalenczak (talk) 14:14, 18 December 2020 (CET)
COVID-19 mass testing
Simulation : I will create simulation for mass Covid-19 testing in Slovakian village or small city. In previous rounds of this real mass testing in Slovakia testing itself took place in one day and in one sampling point, this will be the same with this simulation. In this model roles (medical staff, administrative workers, and police officer), will have assigned costs to them in order to include financial aspect into the simulation. Duration of the simulation will be 4 hours. This will serve as base model which will be adjusted in two ways. Firstly, I will create another model in which I will duplicate sampling point so 2 sampling points will be in simulation. Second adjustment to the base model will be that simulation time will be prolongated to 8 hours. After running all 3 models, outputs will be compared and the optimal one will be selected.
Goal of simulation : In the previous rounds of COVID-19 mass testing in Slovakia certain sampling points had experienced massive overload and were not prepared for the amount of citizens incoming to be tested. Therefore, this simulation would aim to simulate the scenario with data from previous testing rounds and might be helpful if the governments decides to repeat mass testing again.
Method : Discrete simulation - SIMPROCESS
- The topic looks generaly good, my only concern is that is could be too simple. What steps of the model do you plan? Where do you obtain the real data? Tomáš (talk) 02:54, 17 December 2020 (CET)
- I plan to obtain data from this site https://www.svidnik.sk/oznamy/druhe-kolo-plosneho-testovania-vysledky.html - on this website number of patients to be tested and number of points/places that take samples can be found. I know that each point/place has to have: 1 healthcare worker, 2 administrative workers and 1 police officer. Data about hourly rate can be obtained from this site: https://www.platy.sk/platy. Maybe I would like to adjust my original proposal, there would not be 1 point/place taking samples but 9 and I would create another simulation for more or less points/places. Generally I like the idea of splitting patients into two groups and I might include that in my simulation as well. One would consist of people older than 60 and the other one would consist of the rest of population. I will split the population according to demographic structure of Slovakia https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demografia_Slovenska#Vekov%C3%A1_%C5%A1trukt%C3%BAra. Steps I can think of right now: Patients entering, splitting the patients, administrative work, waiting, taking samples, waiting, receiving results, again splitting patients based on the results (negative ones can go home with certificate and positive ones would require additional steps like receiving information what to do next etc.) and the the simulation would end. Milan P (talk) 00:05, 18 December 2020 (CET)
Operation of private dental office
Author : Dufa00 10:50, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation : I would simulate data and conditions of a real private dental office situated in central Bohemia. The Simulation will consist of the aspects influencing the company operations from within and from the outside. Nowadays even the COVID-19 is influencing the revenues and it would be interesting to see how it affects the company.
Important internal aspects include: Number of employees, skills and knowledge of employees/available treatments, price list, warehouse utilization, available tools, average number of patients served per a specified period of time, revenues, wages, bugdet.
Important external aspects include: Reputation of the office, spread level of COVID-19, number of competitors in the area, number of potential and regular patients, external services, law and dental council, insurance companies.
Goal of simulation : To help the specific dental office to react on possible dangers and see the hidden opportunities that might be available once the simulation is done. Whatsmore the results should be appliable to any other average private dental office.
Method : VensimPLE
about nanorobots vs. cancer: An interesting idea. Unfortunately, because this is completely unrealistic, you cannot work with any reasonable data and it means that you are not able to prove the meaningfulness of the results. Please suggest something else. Tomáš (talk) 03:04, 17 December 2020 (CET)
update: I see, I was thinking that this might happen, is the new proposal better? Dufa00 11:03, 19. December 2020 (CET)
- Data collection will be all right, I did Thesis in collaboration with mentioned dental office and they are very hospitable. Dufa00 13:17 20 December 2020 (CET)
Widening the spread between rich and poor
Author : Sára 21:00, 14 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation : After 2007-9 world economic crisis a new monetary policy, rather unconventional, was established to escape recessions/depressions. It is called quantitative easing. Although this tool succeeded in reverting the depression and proved helpful during coming years, it is highly discussed what side effects this tool has. A lot of researches suggest that it widens the gap between rich and poor people and make prices of bonds and stocks highly overheated.
Goal of simulation : Based on macroeconomics theory and semantic experiences from quantitative easing and its influence on other macroeconomic agents like interest rate, inflation, monetary supply etc., i would like to simulate behavior of banks and people during quantitative easing and i would like to work with different values of macroeconomic agents and bank and people behavior in order to try to find out whether widening the spread between rich and poor is an unevitable effect, whether it is sustainable in long term and whether they are possibilities how to erase this side effect.
Method : NetLogo
- I like the topic (although quantitative easing is just an eufemism for money printing, hence the implications are quite predictable). Before I finally approve, please elaborate it deeper. How exactly you will simulate, what will be the agents, what will they do, etc. Tomáš (talk) 02:47, 17 December 2020 (CET)
- Agents will be banks and people, until now quantitative easing is been applied always in the situation when interest rates were low for example, it makes people more willing to borrow but banks less willing to lend so idea behind my research is to simulate the process of quantitative easing under different circumstances than it is normally. According to different circumstances i will change people's and banks's behaviors according to macroeconomics theory and empirical knowledge. Is that deep enough? Sára (talk) 21:01, 18 December 2020 (CET)
- I am afraid, it is not. What different circumstances would you test? Remind the level of detail of the assignments for our agent-based simulations. It should be quite clear what and how you will simulate. I am still not sure.
- BTW, quantitative easing is being used while low interest rates, because central banks have no other instrument to use. If the IR were high, it would typically be simpler to decrease it. Tomáš (talk) 20:03, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- Okay so i will simulate wealth increase of the 5% richest households which own 40% of stocks in 20 years compared to estimated world GDP increase if quatitative easing continues in the current way, also i will compare the increase of stocks prices compared to increase of estate prices if this process continues. And i will simulate the situation in which banks would at least 90% of money they get (after central bank buys their bonds and stocks) they will give to people in form of loans and obtain the same numbers as in the first case. Agents will be banks (deciding how much to invest how much to convert into loans and where to invest, based on real numbers), richest households (deciding whether to establish a new company and go on the market with it, whether to release new stocks etc) and central bank (buying stocks and bonds from banks in exchange for money), there will be some probability of recession in which case central bank will release bigger amount of money and will be willing to pay more for the stocks in order to start economy. Sára (talk) 21:26, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- Approved. Sounds great and quite ambitious. Should you face obstacles, feel free to consult.
Rhino population in Africa
Simulation : Rhinos once roamed many places in Europe, Asia, and Africa. At the beginning of the 20th century, about 500 000 rhinos roamed Africa and Asia. By 1970, rhino numbers dropped to 70,000, and today, around 27,000 rhinos remain in the wild. Africa's rhino population could face extinction within 10 years, animal welfare experts have warned. South Africa has the largest population of the species in the world however, the species still remains under threat from poaching for its horn and from habitat loss and degradation. Data: http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/119/1192816187.pdf, http://www.scielo.org.za/pdf/koedoe/v59n1/15.pdf, https://rhinos.org/about-rhinos/rhino-species/black-rhino/
Goal of simulation : Based on the available data, I would like to simulate future development of the rhino population (probably the black ones in Africa, cause its most documented). The population is threatened by poaching and the loss of the natural environment. The shrinking population increases people's efforts to protect it from poachers but increases the demand for rhino horns.
Method : VensimPLE / Insight Maker
- The input parameters will be data such as the current population of rhinos, the number of illegally killed rhinos, average lifetime, etc. Parameters that will affect the population can be, for example illegal poaching, deaths by fight, habitat loss, population density, poachers arrested, poaching regulation, inbreeding, legally dehorned rhinos, legal hunts, natural deaths - some of them affect population through others. Michal F. (talk) 09:17, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation : My aim is to simulate garbage collection in a city from the city counciler's point of view. I will focus on 3 main standpoints, specifically Waste production, Waste collection and Waste processing. The amount of produced waste is dependent on the population of the city and the rate of waste production of 1 person per day. Waste collection will be dependent on the amount of garbage trucks and their capacity. The number of employees (drivers and garbage collectors) will also play a role in how many trucks per day can be deployed. The final standpoint, Waste processing, consists of waste incineration and recycling. Incineration and recycling facilities can process different amount of waste per day. The scope of simulation can be either in weeks or months.
Goal of simulation : Finding balance between the amount of produced waste and its disposal by regulating the number of employees, trucks, their capacity, and the number of facilities which can either incinerate or recycle waste depending on the type of waste. The population of the city and the waste production of 1 person will be also adjustable.
Method : VensimPLE
Upon further reevaluation I propose to make the model simpler by crossing out the Waste collection standpoint, so there will be Waste production and Waste processing left. On these standpoints I found a valuable source of data: https://www.mzp.cz/cz/odpady_podrubrika . Also, thanks to the available data from 2009 to 2019 I could model the probable evolvement of waste production and waste processing either in Prague or the Czech republic. Dobj02 (talk) 23:58, 18 December 2020 (CET)
Trends of weddings in the future
The purpose of this simulation is to show trends and development of weddings in the Czech republic. It will be based on real data available on Czech Statistical Office. It will predict the expected number of weddings in the future.
Goal of simulation :
Make a prediction of the trends of weddings for next years based on real data from the Czech Statistical Office from the past and consider all factors which influence the number of weddings in the Czech republic.
Method : VensimPLE
IT Team simulation
I would like to create a simulation, which is based on a Process Diagram and which would describe the process of solving business requirements within the IT team in which I now work. The simulation would show the entire course of the process from the origin of the request to the passage of all phases To Develop - Code review - Testing - Acceptance - UAT - Done.
By simulation, I would deal with limited resources and limited specialization in the team. The goal would be to find out how many requests and in what rhythm our team would be able to deliver. As for the data basement - It would be based on the situation for the last two months. We solve projects in Jira and so I would be able to calculate how long the request lasted and when it returned to the previous stages + some average morbidity of team members, etc.
Method: SimProcess simulation
COVID 19 symptoms
The model will represent COVID 19. The nodes in the model will represent the common symptoms of COVID 19. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2020) there are 8 common symptoms: fever, dry cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, loss of appetite, confusion, persistent pain or pressure in the chest, high temperature (above 38 °C). The symptoms of said disease are thought to have direct causal relations with one another. If a person develops a symptom of COVID 19 (e.g. shortness of breath), this increases the likelihood of them developing other symptoms (e.g. loss of appetite, fever). Similarly, if one symptom disappears, the others might as well. The greatest danger is present for people vulnerable to the disease. The model will predict whether a person is vulnerable (due to high age) or resistant to the disease and take this in consideration.
Goal of simulation :
Each tick the probability of a symptom being developed will be calculated. The probability will depend on certain parameters + the total activation of the neighbouring symptoms at the previous tick. These parameters will be the supposed connection between the nodes (slider), influences unrelated to the disease (slider; said age or other respiratory diseases) and the threshold of each symptom.
Method : NetLogo
- Looks interesting, please, bear in mind, that it is necessary for the model to be based on solid data/parameters to be meaningful. Approved. Tomáš (talk) 20:22, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Author : mico00 02:14, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation : this comes form my working environment. although I'm primarily developing our ERP system, guys in the office next-door work with customers and lessors and they do following:
- contacting customer
- retrieving car from the lessor
- cleaning it
- transferring the car to the customer on-site or delivering the car to the customer location
- handling transfer protocols and return protocols
- retrieving cars from customers
- parking them
- changing tires, and other servicing stuff
and at the same time, our sales team is handling incoming inquiries - guiding customers through the inquiry process, scoring, etc...
I can get my hands on quite unique data and simulate what is the bottleneck of the system and potentially:
- learn something interesting
- make an interesting paper
- help my company, which I love deeply
source of data will be out CRM system and data throughout many of the other systems.
this is potentially usable in real life!
Goal of simulation : so the question I'm trying to solve is the following - what is the maximum amount of inquiries that can be processed by the system at this point in time, and what bottlenecks must be tackled to sustain twice the amount of inquiries.
Method : simprocess
Lawn Mower Roboter
Simulation : The Simulation will show the movement and efficiency of a lawn mower robot in different environments (gardens) with different obstacles. It will take attributes like frequency of lawing, wished height of grass, duration of lawing and the power consumption into account. Different algorithms for the movement and the treatment of obstacles will be tried. The limit for the lawing could be a wished height with a defined deviation which is not allowed to be exceeded. The data for the power consumption and duration of lawing can be extracted from variuos providers.
Goal of simulation : Optimize the lawing frequency and selected lawing height, so that the power consumption is the lowest and the deviation of the wished height of the grass is not exceeded.
Method : NETLogo
- OK, please, be more specific. What algorithms for the movement will you use? I would also add a goal of testing the individual algorithms and their efficacy. Tomáš (talk) 20:50, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- I would try a algortithm which changes the direction randomly when it meets obstacles, algorithms that go systematically around obstacles (assumed that the roboter has a camera to recognize obstacles in short distance) and algortihms that try to go vertically or horizontally by going in lines and go to the next line when hitting an obstacle. The efficiency would be measured by the needed time and power consumption. Justin adenau (talk) 21:21, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Retirement Planning and the impact of inflation
Simulation : Investing in shares can contribute a great deal to old-age provision. Therefore, I would like to simulate the portfolio decision of a young family. They already have a portfolio of shares and plan to continue investing a fixed amount each year. The decision is to continue to invest in a fixed stock index (SP500) or to invest in a portfolio of 4 CTX stocks from now on.
Data Source: Yahoo Finance
Goal of simulation : The aim of the simulation is to compare the two portfolios and calculate their probable value in 30 years and what interest income the family can expect in 30 years.
Method : Excel / Monte Carlo
I understand. After my research I am not sure if the simulation of stock market crisis is possible with MC. Therefore, I would like to add a third Option of a Portfolio which consists of Bonds and Shares. Additionally I would like to simulate the Inflation rate and check its impact on the different options. Louis (talk) 22:31, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- The effect of the financial crises can be generated randomly as a shock event with a negative impact on stock prices. Whithout these, so called, economic cycles the simulation wouldn't make sense (investing in stocks would always be the better option since the risk of losing the value would be missing). Oleg.Svatos (talk) 09:23, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Covid 19 - Contact Tracing
Simulation : The Covid 19 global pandemic has an impact on all our lives. Especially the lockdowns in all countries - including the Czech Republic and Germany. The main goal of these lockdowns is to reduce the number of contacts so that contacts of infected people can be traced and chains of infection can be broken. In my simulation, I would like to show the impact of higher distances between people and the prohibition of large public events on the number of infected people. Contacts with infected people are represented by links, infections are shown by recoloring of the agent. The simulation will show the effects when wearing masks and when not.By this the simulation shows the effect in reducing infections by keeping distance, banning mass events and wearing masks.
Data Source: Data on infection incidence sufficiently available - use only scientific sources
Goal of simulation : Showing the importance of keeping distance and holding onto rules in a global pandemic, to show the impact everbody has in these times.
Method : Netlogo
Evolution of retirement pay in the Czech Republic
Simulation : Nowadays a lot of people say that the Czech Republic will have problems with the retirement pay in the future. So, I decided to create a simulation, which will show a prediction of average retirement pay in the Czech Republic for next 50 years. The average retirement pay depends on more factors and I decided to predict it depending on GDP, state debt, population, mortality and natality.
Data Source: I will use data from mfcr.cz and czso.cz
Goal of simulation : The aim of the simulation is to predict the evolution of average retirement pay in the Czech Republic and to find out how much money people will get in the future.
Method : VensimPLE
Simulation : The simulation includes field area and the castle area, attacker agents will have to cross the field area which has an adjustable number of barricades and reach the gate in the castle area then sufficiently damage it to break it. Defender agents will shoot arrows from the castle walls to hinder attackers' progress and protect the gate and subsequently the castle. Attackers and defenders will have multiple types.
Data Source: Number of attackers and defenders and value of their attributes will be adjustable by a common user.
Goal of simulation : Allowing user to generate custom scenarios and saving their results.
Method : Netlogo
- sounds like a game. I don't see a point why you should simulate something like that. What should be the output? Tomáš (talk) 22:00, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- If I change the setting to ship landing (Day D f.e.) and change the output to find the lowest possible offensive force to have 95% success rate of the siege, will that meet the requirements or shall I change the topic completely ? If this topic won't get accepted anyway my other idea is to simulate a forest ecosystem and optimize at what animal counts should huntsman hunt them to keep the balance in check. Doum01 (talk) 22:15, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Hunting Sharks Simulation
Simulation : I would like to create a simulation of life in the ocean, specifically shark hunts. In the simulation, there will be two types of agents, fish forming a shoal and sharks in an adjustable number. The first step will be to implement a swarm / shoal movement algorithm for fish agents. The fish will try to avoid the sharks, although they will be slower, but much more mobile in changes of direction. They will also randomly spawn and die. Sharks will have two modes controlled by hunger. If the shark is full, it will just roam the ocean. If the shark is hungry, it switches to hunting mode. This is where the fun begins. The shark speeds up and starts hunting. When moving in one direction, its speed may increase even more. A shark in hunting mode will also have a greater vision range than fish. If there are more sharks, it would be possible to implement reproduction or more types of food for shark (some can be more attractive for them).
Data Source: Data traceable on the Internet, such as the swimming speed of sharks and common fish.
Goal of simulation : We do know that sharks are solitary animals, for the most part of live. They typically live and hunt by themselves, joining up with other sharks only in certain circumstances, such as mating. I would like to answer the question of whether it would be beneficial for sharks to form "packs".
Method : NetLogo
- The topic is good, the goals is meaningless. You will recommend sharks to change their instincts? Please, let me know how and I will approve immediately. Otherwise try to find a better goal. Tomáš (talk) 22:04, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- Thank you for response. Maybe i can add third specie lets say sea lion or dolphin and new goal will be to create an ecosystem where all species can survive for at least 1000 iterations or create balance. Too many sharks will hunt down sea lions, small numbers of fish will not reproduce fast enough to feed predators. All parameters like fish spawn rate, energy etc. will be adjustable. Or if you have some approvable idea im open for suggestions :) Thank you for answer. Frym06 (talk) 22:53, 19 December 2020 (CET)
- If you do not approve my last idea I have another one. I will simulate Corrupted Blood Incident from World of Warcraft from 2005 described here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupted_Blood_incident. I will modify the effect of spell a little bit and the goal of simulation will be find the minimum optimal number of players with healer class hero needed to handle epidemics in capital city. Parameters like health of agents and power of healing spells will be based on common values in game back in that days.Method will be NetLogo again. I will create separated topic if it is needed. Frym06 (talk) 00:24, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Risk Simulation in Banking
Simulation: Since the Financial Crisis 2007/08 the systematic relevance of banks came into public focus. Excessive risk taking together with an interdependent banking sector led to a dangerous snowball effect which in most countries could only be fixed by massive bail-outs programs. The exchange of liquidity in between commercial banks on the interbank market, while being beneficial in normal times, offers a treat to the systems stability during black swan events. I therefore plan to simulate the banking market in an arbitrary country and test its resilience to said events with different grades of safety mechanisms (like the Basel III rules for Capital requirements, leverage ratio and Liquidity requirements) in place.
Goal of Simulation: The goal of the Simulation is to access the effectiveness of different measures that were introduced to bolster the financial systems stability. At the same time, I will try to fit the simulation parameters to those of the actual german banking market and try to derive the probabilities of a systematic collapse.
Data source: Deutsche Bundesbank, ECB
Method: Since the non-spatial nature of this topic, I think a MC-Simulation is the best method here.
- The input-parameters would be balance sheet information from the banks like leverage-ratio, liquidity or total assets (possibly with a projection over future years). Variables would be the default probabilities of other banks/private customers. Also I think about including certain "black swan" events like the bursting of housing bubbles or corona. Simon (talk) 14:17, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Effects of VAT exemption abolition to imported low value consignments
Simulation: From 1. 7. 2021 EU Customs Codex has abolished the VAT (Value added tax) exemption limit on imported low-value goods (consignments below 22€). This means, that even for such small consignments, the VAT from the imported goods will have to paid in the state of the consumption. The goods below 150€ will still be exempt from standard customs duties, unless the goods are subject to eg. excise or such. The point of my simulation will be to estimate the novel impacts to the foreign trade (mainly import regimes) volume of the Union.
Goal of Simulation: There are two goals of this simulation. Firstly, to determine the effects of the novel introduction to the tax revenue in the Czech Republic. Secondly, the simulation should be also able to estimate, if this novel will have any impact on the foreign trade in general - can we expect a decrease, or will it not affect the amount of imported goods?
Data source: Intrastat, ČSÚ
Method: Monte Carlo simulation
- The main input parameter would be probably VAT rate in the Czech Republic. Random variables would be the amount of imported goods under the specified invoice price and the percentage of such goods which are imported under relief regimes, which are still exempt from VAT (for example gifts - consignments sent from one private individual to another). Probability distribution of both variables should be possible to determine based on data from past years, the statistics (Intrastat, ČSÚ) are quite detailed on this topic. As an addition to the first input parameter, I would also like to incorporate the effect of COVID-19 pandemics on the global trade - the data from year 2020 would probably have bigger impact to the probability distribution of the random variables, as we can expect that 2021 will have similar course from this point of view: this could also be used as one of the input parameters (probably <0;1> where 0 would be standard situation without any restrictions and 1 would be complete economy lockdown), so the simulation is able to determine the results based on the COVID-19 situation in 2021. For this I would use the data from 2020, based on the current restrictions throughout the year. This way, I would like to change the goal of the simulation and focus only on the first goal - the expected tax revenue in the Czech Republic, based on VAT rate and COVID-19 situation. I am afraid, that the second goal (impact on the foreign trade in general) is not possible to determine in this simulation. Is this ok? bara15 (talk) 12:05, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Comparing multiple airplane boarding methods
Simulation: Based on the video about different boarding methods from GCP Gray , I would like to simulate and compare different airplane boarding methods found in the video and possible other sources. The simulation would offer results about how long it takes for passangers board the plane or how often are the passangers stuck in queue, idling.
Goal of Simulation: Goal of the simulation would be to find the most optimal airplane boarding method.
Data source: Publicly available boarding methods and possibly my own boarding methods.
- It sounds really great. I am looking forward to it. Approved. Tomáš (talk) 22:06, 19 December 2020 (CET)
Predicting acceptance rate in high school entry exams
Simulation: I will collect information about the distribution of scores of standardized SCIO high school entry exams from sites of various high school, then I will do Monte Carlo simulations exploring the likelihood of acceptance for different scores achieved by the students.
Goal of Simulation: Predict the likelihoods of acceptence for all scores with increments of a single point, this can serve to students who want to knw how many points they should aim for
Method: Monte Carlo
- I did not find the acceptence rate in the data you have referenced and it is far too simple to be a simulation. The simulation has to simulate a phenomenon completely and in time. So, for instance, if I stay with the same topic, interesting "demographic" simulation would be forcast of number of applicants for highschools and how their average score may develope for different types of schools. The demographic part has to be incorporated - development of age groups the applicants are from. Oleg.Svatos (talk) 14:14, 20 December 2020 (CET)
Simulation: I would like to create a simulation of the beer production process for small family or medium craft breweries. I would follow up on my work as part of one of the assignment-homework in the semester. The process of brewing beer consists of several steps that take different times and require different resources. I would like to optimize the production process of a small brewery with a certain number of employees
Goal of Simulation: The task will be to determine the maximum possible production limited by available resources, such as the number of employees, cooking vessels, fermentation vessels and to minimize overstocking.
Data source: I will get data on the times of individual events, the volume of containers and the necessary raw materials from my friend the brewer.