Difference between revisions of "Covid-19 Mass testing"
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Revision as of 22:51, 20 January 2021
- Simulation: Covid-19 Mass testing
- Author: pavm13 21:00, 20 January 2021 (CET) Milan Pavelčák
- Model type: Discrete simulation
- Used tool: SIMPROCESS
Description of assignment
In Slovakia government decided to fight coronavirus by testing its population in a massive way. Such action requires a number of qualified personnel to be paid and premises to be secured. The goal of this simulation is to find an optimum (from the economic point of view and also from the personnel side) and decide how many sampling points need to be opened along with number of experienced personnel in order to test as many citizens as possible. Another point worth mentioning is that in this simulation population will be divided into two groups. First one will consist of people older than 60 years and the second one of peple between 15 - 59 years old. Reason for this division is to take care of older people and to protect them from the dangers posed by young asymptomatic citizens.
Flow of the simulation: Simulation will start with people coming to sampling points. Then they will be sorted based on their age into two groups (in simulation priority for sorting was used) and they would have to fill some paperwork and other staff. This requires one administrative worker and one police officer. Both groups will have their own administrative worker and police officer in order to keep them separated. After that citizens will wait in line for samples to be taken by qualified medical laboratory technician. After having their samples taken then they will wait again for the results which will be provided by another administrative worker and then sorted again according to the test result (for this in simulation data from webpage were used and probability of positive citizens was calculated). Citizens with positive result will have to wait again for instruction provided by another administrative worker and then they are free to go home to self-isolate. The rest, the negative ones will be given certificate and also free to go home.
In this simulation 3 models with different conditions will be used:
- Model 1: The duration of the first model will be 4 hours with 8 sampling points evenly distributed for both groups. The variable according to which the number of sampling point is determined are the roles/resources.
- Model 2: In the second model duration of the simulation will be 8 hours and other conditions will remain the same as in Model 1.
- Model 3:In the last model 2 more sampling points for citizens below 60 years will be added and the duration of simulation will be 6 hours.
Number of people to be tested
The data source is a page of a smaller city that has published the test results on its website. From this page, the numbers of test citizens were drawn, as well as the positivity of the tests performed.  Numbers of people incoming to the sample points to be tested was calculated as average from the data source and afterwards divided according to the demographic information about Slovakia. 
- Citizens over 60: 266
- Citizens below 60: 1544
As mentioned before economic point of view is also important for this simulation therefore each and every role will be seen as resource with allocated cost (hour wages). Due to the nature of SIMPROCESS features when it comes to working with resources roles were created for both groups:
|Role||Hourly wage (€)||Number required for one sampling point|
|Medical laboratory technician < 60||7.33||1|
|Medical laboratory technician > 60||7.33||1|
|Administrative worker < 60||8.98||4|
|Administrative worker > 60||8.98||4|
|Police officer < 60||12.74||1|
|Police officer > 60||12.74||1|
As already mentioned, the duration set for first model is 4 hours and the simulation will take place in one day between 8:00 - 12:00. After 12:00 there will not be a chance for citizens to enter the sampling point. However, for those who will be still inside a sampling point there will be 30 additional minutes.