Simulation of pandemic spread

Title: Simulation of pandemic spread

Author: Daniel Kopecký

Method: Agent-based model

Tool: NetLogo

Introduction and problem definition

Not so long ago we had the COVID-19 pandemic, which showed us the shortcomings in dealing with this type of problem. Pandemic propagation simulation can be a key tool to model, analyse and predict the evolution of a pandemic. This model deals specifically with viral diseases. The aim of this simulation is to be able to predict the spread of a pandemic virus, whereby using appropriate values, it can simulate the approximate development of a pandemic in the Czechia.

Variables

• init-population - Population at the beginning of the simulation

• init-infected - Number of infected at the start of the simulation

• recovery.rate - Rate of recovery of infected individuals

• init-immune - Number of immune individuals at the beginning of the simulation

• quarantine.effort - Quarantine effort (affects the chance of infecting an individual)

• transmission.rate - Rate of virus transmission between individuals

• infected-mortality - Virus mortality rate

• healthcare.capacity - Capacity of health facilities (affects the rate of death of individuals)

• immunity? - Turns immunity on or off