# Problem definition

Waste processing in the 21st century is increasingly more characterized by efforts to protect the environment and ensure sustainable development - a sign of circular economy which aims to combine the environmental benefits with socioeconomic positive impact. The simulation focuses on the total amount of waste created by manufacturers and inhabitants of Prague. The waste is then processed in one of 4 ways - recycling, incineration, landfilling, or other disposal. Among variables which have an impact on the system are primary resources used for manufacturing, population of the city and an average consumption per capita. Simulation will run in months and waste is measured in tonnes. The purpose of this simulation is to predict waste production and waste processing for year 2020 based on the data from 2019.

# Method

For the purpose specified in the problem definition Vensim PLE modelling software was chosen.

# Model

## Variables

### Waste

Represents total volume of produced waste. Starting value is 0

### Creation

Volume of produced waste in a month. Creation = Municipal waste + Manufacturing waste

### Processed

Total volume of processed waste. Consists of recycling, incineration, landfilling, and other disposal. Processed = Creation

### Recycling

Total volume of processed waste by recycling. Recycling = Creation * Recycling rate

### Recycling rate

How many per cent of total waste is being recycled. Recycling rate = 0,845 [1]

### Incineration

Total volume of processed waste by incineration. Incineration = Creation * Incineration rate

### Incineration rate

How many per cent of total waste is being incinerated. Incineration rate = 0,035 [1]

### Landfilling

Total volume of waste processed by landfilling. Stock pile = Creation * Landfilling rate

### Landfilling rate

How many per cent of total waste is being landfilled. Landfilling rate = 0,095 [1]

### Recycled

Volume of recycled waste in a month. Starting value is 355 793 (average for one month in Prague in 2019) [2]. Recycled = (Creation * Recycling rate) - Recycled

### Manufacturing material

Volume of material used in manufacturing during month which consists of primary resources and secondary (recycled waste). Material = Recycled + Primary resources

### Other disposal

Other disposal represents total volume of uses of waste other than recycling, incineration, and landfilling. Other disposal = Creation* Other disposal rate

### Other disposal rate

How many per cent of total waste is being disposed of in other ways. Other disposal rate = 0,025 [1]

### Primary resources

Primary resources represents the resources that are used in manufacturing which were not recycled. Primary resources = RANDOM NORMAL (974240, 2000000, 1487120, 100000, 0)

### Manufacturing waste

Waste created by manufacturing. Manufacturing waste = Manufacturing materials * Waste creation rate

### Waste creation rate

Represents how many per cent of waste is created from manufacturing. Waste creation rate = 0,2

### Municipal waste

Municipal waste = Population * Average consumption per capita

### Population

Population = 1 331 464 [3]

### Average consumption per capita

Municipal waste in Prague was 721 000 tonnes in 2019 [2]. Municipal waste divided by total population of Prague is 0.548 tonnes per capita in a year (2019)[2]. 0,548/12 = 0,04566 tonnes of created municipal waste per capita in one month. Average consumption per capita in a month = 0,04566

# Results

The estimation for the total waste produced in 2020 is 5 174 220 tonnes based on the results of the simulation. For comparison, according to MŽP, the total produced waste in 2019 was 5 144 000 tonnes.

Total of 4 372 220 tonnes was recycled (84,5 % of total volume), 181 098 tonnes was incinerated (3,5 %), 491 551 was landfilled (9,5 %) and the rest (2,5 %) was disposed of in other ways.

# Conclusion

The numbers in the simulation are based on the latest available data (from 2019). Because of the nature of the data, which are presented in years, I divided the volume of total recycled waste by 12 to get the "average month" in 2019 to simulate evolvement in 2020 by adjusting the population. Total volume of recycled waste was calculated by (total created waste in Prague)*0,845[1]. From the simulation an estimation was created for year 2020 (which has not been documented yet). The goal was to simulate 12 months in 2020 (12 steps). Step 0 represents average month from 2019 to start the simulation.

# References

1. Ministerstvo životního prostředí Souhrnná data o odpadovém hospodářství ČR v letech 2009 - 2019[online]. Available from: https://www.mzp.cz/C1257458002F0DC7/cz/odpady_podrubrika/\$FILE/OODP-Souhrnna_data_2009_2019-20201119.002.pdf
2. Ministerstvo životního prostředí Produkce odpadů v krajích České republiky, 2010 - 2019[online]. Available from: https://www.mzp.cz/C1257458002F0DC7/cz/odpady_podrubrika/\$FILE/OODP-Produkce_kraje_2019-20201119.002.pdf
3. Český statistický úřad Nejnovější údaje: Hl. m. Praha[online]. Available from: https://www.czso.cz/csu/xa/1-xa